Welcome to the first cavalry charge of the flat turf season. Twenty-two battle-hardened horses line up for the 2025 Lincoln, and while the market is honed in on a few hyped runners, the Contrarian sees past the noise. Let’s rip through the angles, expose the false favourites, and dig out live longshots with real upside.


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False Favourites? Proceed with Caution

Thunder Run (5/1): Market leader and a credible one — progressive, tactically versatile, trainer flying — but the value’s long gone. At 5/1 in a field of 22, you’re buying hope, not edge.

Midnight Gun (7/1): Profile screams promise, but he’s been gelded, has fitness questions, and a long layoff in a race demanding race-hardened readiness. Rated 110 on our adjusted figs — no better than fair odds at 8/1.



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Value Zones: Live Contenders at Bigger Prices

1. ORANDI (10/1)
Adjusted Rating: 108
Fresh from storming through a 27-runner Irish Lincoln with an ideal hold-up ride. Has the same draw/distance/ground set-up here and thrives on strong pace. With middle draw and Rossa Ryan aboard, 10/1 is still value. Should be around 13/2 on our tissue.

2. LATTAM (12/1)
Adjusted Rating: 105
Was runner-up in this race last year and again in the Balmoral — both under similar conditions. Strong traveller, best fresh, and fits all the profile angles. Trainer Camacho knows how to place one. Should be single figures.

3. WHIP CRACKER (12/1)
Adjusted Rating: 101
Laid out for this. Ran a blinder on return at Wolverhampton, should strip fitter now, and thrives on cover and pace — both are likely in abundance. Draw is just okay, but 12/1 is fair for a late-runner with upside.


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Contrarian Darts: Longshots Worth a Swing

4. OLIVER SHOW (16/1)
Adjusted Rating: 100
Lightly campaigned, versatile surface record, and shaped well in Bahrain listed company last time. Gets Billy Loughnane and a tongue tie — a dangerous combo. If he breaks better than usual, he’s a big runner.

5. APIARIST (22/1)
Adjusted Rating: 99
Racked up two AW wins but has turf form and stays a strong mile. Drawn low, so needs luck, but will be strong late. At 22s, he’s overpriced relative to recent winning form and fitness.


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One to Fade

NATIVE WARRIOR (10/1): Well-regarded after last year’s Royal Ascot third, but hasn’t run since September and has to prove himself fit, fresh, and not overhyped. Adjusted rating (106) puts him a peg below the front rank, and he’s underpriced.


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The Contrarian’s Plays

Win Bet – ORANDI (10/1): Ideal setup, proven in big fields.

Each-Way – LATTAM (12/1) & WHIP CRACKER (12/1): Battle-tested and solid ratings.

Big Odds Dart – OLIVER SHOW (16/1) or APIARIST (22/1): Wouldn’t be shocked.