A small but intriguing 5-runner field where tactics could prove key given the very weak pace forecast. A front-runner able to dictate could take some pegging back, especially on a drying surface. Despite a lack of recent sparkle from some contenders, the drop in grade and pace scenario opens the door for a few to bounce back.

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🔝 Strongest Contender: HYPOTENUS

Trainer: Joe Tickle | Jockey: Richie McLernon | Form: 3-3-3-7-8 (latest 3 chase runs all placed)
Timeform comment:

“Could get his own way in front here… arrives in good form and may prove the answer in a tricky race.”

• A consistent front-runner who’s shaped well in his last three runs since switching to fences.
• Stayed on for third at Sandown and Hereford despite doing too much early, and now looks very well placed to control the tempo in this small field.
• Transferred from Gavin Cromwell and could unlock a bit more for the new yard.
• Drying ground a positive.

✅ Verdict: Tactically advantaged, in form, and best suited to the likely pace shape. Leading player.

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⚠️ Main Dangers

🟡 Third Time Lucki

Trainer: Fergal O’Brien (in red-hot form) | Jockey: Jonathan Burke
Timeform comment:

“Plenty in his favour but has been beaten 5 times when trading odds-on in-running.”

• Former smart novice chaser for Dan Skelton, now with a stable firing on all cylinders.
• Hasn’t fired since his return from a 19-month break, but this is a steep drop in class and weight, which makes him fascinating.
• Goes well on good ground, and if he’s ever going to bounce back, it’s probably today.

🧠 Back class and trainer form make him a serious danger if responding to the class drop.

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🟡 Coastguard Station

Trainer: Henry Oliver | Jockey: David Noonan
Timeform smart stat:

“£34.20 profit to £1 level stake with only runner on the card (chases).”

• Last seen over hurdles but is best as a chaser, winning nicely at Uttoxeter last summer.
• Has some strong past figures and acts on good ground.
• Could sneak into this if they crawl early – his finishing effort is respectable when on a going day.

💣 Market may overlook him, but he fits as a value outsider if the front two misfire.

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❌ Others

🔻 Kotmask

Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore | Jockey: Caoilin Quinn

• Looked progressive in the autumn but jumping fell apart in last two starts.
• Stable is strong at this trip, but 13/8 looks far too short based on his last two runs.

🔻 Light N Strike

Trainer: Emma Lavelle

• Form has collapsed since wind surgery; has been pulled up twice in last 3 starts.
• Clearly has ability on older form, but very hard to back until he shows signs of life.