As the flat season ramps up, few early-season races in Ireland hold the weight and expectation of the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes. Scheduled for 15:45 at Leopardstown on Sunday, March 30th, this year’s renewal features seven promising 3-year-olds—and with it, the potential to shape the Classic picture for months to come.

But before the gates even open, we already know quite a bit. From historical trends to trainer patterns, and from Timeform insights to form-based expectations, here’s what we’ve learned—and what we might just witness on Sunday afternoon.


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1. The Ballysax Stakes Is a Kingmaker

Let’s be clear: the Ballysax is no ordinary Group 3. It’s a race that has produced Derby winners (Galileo, High Chaparral, Harzand), top-class stayers (Yeats), and plenty of horses who graduate to Group 1 level.

The common thread? The Ballysax first three home tend to go on to bigger and better things. Thanks to HorseRaceBase’s “Big Race Trends,” we can track that with clarity:

41 of the past Ballysax 1-2-3 finishers went next to the Derrinstown Derby Trial.

Result: 16 wins, +2.33 SP profit.


Winners only who followed up in the Derrinstown? 10 winners from 16—a stunning 62.5% strike rate.


If you want to find horses for notebooks, trackers, or ante-post punts, this is one of the best springboards you’ll see all year.


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2. This Year’s Favourite Is Already a Talking Horse

The headline act in 2025 is DELACROIX, the Ryan Moore-ridden Aidan O’Brien colt with a glowing profile:

122p Timeform rating—a standout figure for a 3yo in March.

Won the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket and was nose-second in the Group 1 Futurity Trophy, sticking on strongly in soft ground.

Bred to stay 1m4f and beyond. Sunday’s 1m2f should be an ideal starting point.


But here’s the thing: he’s been beaten three times when odds-on in-running. There’s a touch of vulnerability beneath the brilliance—especially with 155 days off the track and fitness questions.


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3. The Depth Is Stronger Than It Looks

While Delacroix hogs the spotlight, the supporting cast is worth more than a second glance:

Puppet Master (also O’Brien-trained) ran a solid fourth in the Royal Lodge and looks to be crying out for 10f. This is a trip-upgrade horse.

Kibris—Joseph O’Brien’s colt—won a 27-runner maiden at the Curragh and shaped like a Group horse. Lightly raced, still untapped.

Tiberius Thunder, Spicy Margarita, and Wemightakedlongway are all open to chunks of improvement. Even Lambourn, who flopped in the Beresford, has Listed-winning form and may improve for the longer trip.


This is no five-runner formality—it’s a legitimate trial where tactics, fitness, and progression could flip expectations.


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4. Expect the Unexpected (Recent SP Tells Us So)

Here’s the last five SPs of Ballysax winners:

2024 – Dallas Star (50/1)

2023 – White Birch (22/1)

2022 – Piz Badile (4/1)

2021 – Bolshoi Ballet (2/1f)

2019 – Broome (5/2)


So while O’Brien wins plenty of these (three of last five), the race has also been kind to surprise packages. Any colt stepping forward from a maiden could produce the shock result—especially in small fields with even pace like we’re expecting this year.


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What We Can Expect on Sunday

A steady pace (no front-running burn-up), meaning positioning and race fitness will matter.

Delacroix likely to race prominently and try to assert class.

At least one contender stepping forward significantly, throwing their hat into the Derby trial ring.

Punters and pros alike notebooking the first three finishers—especially if the form looks strong.



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Final Thoughts: A Trial That Truly Tells

The Ballysax is more than a prep—it’s a pulse check on the Irish 3-year-old scene. It gives us Classic clues, Royal Ascot angles, and system bettors a reliable route to follow (especially toward the Derrinstown).

On Sunday, we’ll get answers:

Is Delacroix the real deal or a Derby hype bubble?

Can Kibris or Puppet Master emerge as Group 1 horses in waiting?

Will this year’s renewal follow the classic pathway, or throw up a new twist?


Whatever the outcome, the Ballysax always teaches us something—and this year promises to be no different.