Pace Forecast: Very Weak
Tactical Angle: Strong emphasis on tactical speed and prominent ride – hold-up horses may find it tricky to reel them in.

🔥 Strongest Contender

🟩 Demoiselle Kap (Adjusted Rating: 135)

This in-form mare has been on a tear since joining Jennie Candlish, racking up four wins in her last five runs (hurdles and fences). She lost little in defeat last time, finishing second at Ludlow under a penalty, and was giving weight to the winner that day.

• Timeform comment: “Has been in rude health this year and lost little in defeat back over the larger obstacles at Ludlow last time. She can resume winning ways.”
• Positives: Consistent improver, handles the ground, stays the trip well, and tactically versatile.
• Caution: Slight tactical concern in a weakly-run race if held up—but has the class edge.

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⚠️ Main Dangers

🟨 Lord of Cheshire (Adjusted Rating: 128)

Front-running chaser with solid handicap form and a win at Fontwell on his resumé this season. Fell when still in contention last time at Doncaster. He’s likely to be well-placed in this very weak pace scenario and comes from a yard (Twiston-Davies) that can get one ready after a break.

• Timeform note: “A slowly-run race should suit those ridden prominently and LORD OF CHESHIRE ought to be better placed than EVERYONESGAME in view of that.”
• Caution: Has been off 108 days; fitness a question, though Sam Twiston-Davies stays loyal in the saddle.

🟨 Everyonesgame (Adjusted Rating: 117)

Chasing debut was a bit underwhelming (last of three), but he’s got decent hurdle form and a future over fences. From a capable yard and has scope for improvement, but the tactical setup here doesn’t favour his likely off-the-pace style.

• Timeform note: “May have more to offer over fences and rates the chief threat.”
• Caution: Long layoff (134 days), not proven over fences yet, and running style a negative here.

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❌ Opposables

• Kart d’Estruval: Breathing issues, pulled up last time, and yet to fire for Dan Skelton. Despite being well bred, he’s hard to trust in this company.
• El Rojo Grande: Won a point in Ireland, but his rules form has been poor. Recent chase efforts show some spark, but he’s still a long way off this class.

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🧾 Summary Verdict

In a race lacking pace and depth, Demoiselle Kap stands out as a class act and the most solid option under Jonjo Jr. She’s well treated on form and versatile enough tactically. If she’s not inconvenienced by a slow gallop, she should take this.

Lord of Cheshire is the likeliest danger, especially if he’s allowed an uncontested lead. He could be a real threat if fully tuned up. Everyonesgame is one to watch longer term but may need more time and/or pace to be seen to best effect.