The Grand National is the ultimate puzzle for punters, but patterns emerge when you dig into the data. We’ve sifted through the stats from recent renewals to identify the trends that matter most. If you’re planning a bet on the world’s most famous steeplechase, here are the key takeaways to help shape your thinking – listed in order of importance.

1. Proven Stamina is Non-Negotiable If a horse hasn’t already won over at least three miles, it shouldn’t be on your shortlist. Every Grand National winner in modern times had shown they could stay a marathon trip. Many had wins over 3m4f+ and proven staying form in Nationals or extreme-distance chases. No stamina, no chance.

2. Recent Run is Crucial Fresh is fine, but too fresh is a red flag. All of the last 26 winners had run within the previous 8 weeks, and over 80% had raced within the last 34 days. Ideally, your pick should have had a run in March, maybe at Cheltenham or a decent prep elsewhere.

3. Age Sweet Spot: 8 to 10 Years The Grand National is no place for babies or veterans. Horses aged 8 or 9 dominate recent renewals. Ten-year-olds do win, but 7-year-olds are very rare winners (only once since 1940), and horses aged 12 or older haven’t won for a century.

4. Stays on in Form – Without Peaking Too Soon Winners don’t need to come in off a victory. Only a handful have won their last start. Instead, look for horses that ran well without winning – finishing 3rd, 4th or staying on over the wrong trip. Around half of the last winners had finished top four on their previous run.

5. Handicap Mark and Weight Balance Winners tend to be well-handicapped without being top-class. The ideal official rating is around 146–150. Horses carrying under 11 stone have a better strike rate, though recent changes have levelled the playing field slightly. Big weights still make life tough.

6. Chase Experience Matters The Grand National is not for learners. Winners typically had at least 10 chase starts and multiple wins. Novices struggle unless they’re exceptional. Look for horses that have plenty of chasing mileage under their belt.

7. Jumping Reliability Falling is fatal in the National. Most winners had a low fall/unseat rate in their careers. Horses with a history of non-completions tend to falter again over Aintree’s 30 fences. Look for clean, efficient jumpers.

8. Odds Sweet Spot: 10/1 to 25/1 Outsiders win occasionally, and favourites can land it too – but most winners start at double-figure odds. The sweet spot is around 14/1 to 20/1. Enough value, but not an unrealistic shot.

9. Solid Seasonal Campaign All recent winners had 3 to 6 runs that season. Horses need to be fit and battle-hardened. Fewer than 3 runs can mean underprepared; more than 6 and they might be over the top.

10. National Form or Similar Helps Experience over marathon trips and big-field handicaps is gold dust. Around half of recent winners had run in a National (Aintree, Irish, Scottish, Welsh) or similar slog. Extra marks if they completed or ran well over the Grand National fences in the Becher or Topham.

11. Trained and Bred for the Job Irish-trained and Irish-bred horses dominate the roll of honour. They’ve won around half of the last 10. Trainers like Gordon Elliott, Willie Mullins and Lucinda Russell have proven they know how to get one ready. That doesn’t mean UK stables can’t win, but Ireland’s grip is strong.

12. Jockeys with Aintree Know-How You don’t need a household name in the saddle, but it helps if the jockey has previous Grand National experience. Winning riders tend to be patient, tactically smart, and good at navigating big fields. A previous spin over the fences helps.

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Wrap-Up: Building the Perfect Profile If you can find a horse that is 8 or 9 years old, rated around 148, carrying under 11 stone, with at least 10 chase runs, a win over 3m4f+, solid form last time out, trained by someone with National success, and priced around 14/1 – you’re close to ticking every box.

That doesn’t guarantee a winner, but it gives you a much better shot. The Grand National will always have its quirks and surprises, but trends don’t lie. Use them smartly, and you’re already ahead of most of the field.