Distance: 1m 7f 176y | Going: Good to Soft (Good in places)
Field Size: 6 runners
Pace Forecast: Weak (prominent racers likely to be favoured)

🔍 Overview & Tactical Shape:

This year’s Maghull looks set to revolve around Arkle form, with both ONLY BY NIGHT and L’EAU DU SUD reopposing after running blinders at Cheltenham. With TOUCH ME NOT likely to force the issue, and several hold-up types in here, the pace scenario could get messy – and that might hand the tactical edge to a mare on the up.

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⭐ Strongest Contender: ONLY BY NIGHT (Trainer: Gavin Cromwell | Jockey: Keith Donoghue)

This upwardly mobile mare has done nothing but improve over fences, winning three times before going down by just ¾ of a length in the Arkle, finishing powerfully from off the pace. That was a huge career-best effort on the clock and in form terms – Timeform awarded her a rating of 171 and noted she “travels strongly” and “should stay 2½m”. The return to a slightly less undulating track like Aintree suits, and she receives 7lb weight-for-age/sex from her male rivals – a big advantage at this level. The pace setup could allow her to dictate or sit handy and pounce late again.

💬 Timeform Comment: “Has flourished over fences and is fancied to quickly resume winning ways having been edged out late on in the Arkle.”

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🔥 Main Dangers:

🟡 L’EAU DU SUD (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton)

Another Arkle graduate, only 1½ lengths behind the winner in 4th, having travelled sweetly into contention but possibly hit the front too soon. He’s a superb jumper, with strong form figures prior to Cheltenham, including wins in the Henry VIII at Sandown and Kingmaker at Warwick. There’s a question over whether he’s better coming off a stronger pace – which he may not get here – but if delivered correctly, he’s a major threat.

💬 Timeform Comment: “Fine jumper who travels strongly: tactically versatile, but probably best when delivered late (ended up in front seemingly too soon in Arkle).”

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🟠 KALIF DU BERLAIS (Trainer: Paul Nicholls | Jockey: Harry Cobden)

A big, imposing horse who was unbeaten over fences before disappointing at Sandown in the Scilly Isles over 2½m. That run might have come too soon, or the trip stretched him. Prior to that, his 9½-length demolition of Vincenzo at Cheltenham looked smart. He now drops back to 2m – his optimum trip – and comes here fresh. Nicholls has a strong record in this race, and this could be the forgotten horse of the race.

💬 Timeform Comment: “Will be suited by a return to 2m: usually races close up.”

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⚡ Others Worth Mentioning:

• TOUCH ME NOT: A habitual front-runner who has traded much shorter in-running than his final position in a few top races. He’ll be forcing the pace, and although he was well held in the Arkle, he could grab a place if things fall apart behind him.

💬 Timeform Insight: “Despite the projected pace forecast has been beaten before after trading much lower than Betfair SP.”

• SPECIAL CADEAU: An interesting dark horse, formerly with Willie Mullins. Bolted up on chase debut for de Bromhead, but needs a big leap in form to trouble these.
• BROOKIE: A likeable type with solid UK handicap form, but has plenty to find on ratings and likely outclassed at this level.