Saturday, 12 April – Ayr 15:35
Premier Handicap | 3m7f | Good to Soft | 23 runners | Pace Forecast: Even

🧠 The Big Picture

This historic staying chase often goes to an improving type on the up or a seasoned marathoner primed for this one day. Stamina is absolutely non-negotiable over nearly four miles, and course position counts — hold-up horses are often disadvantaged at this trip on this track.

The form from Cheltenham’s National Hunt Chase, the Edinburgh National, and last year’s Scottish National all feed directly into this, and a Willie Mullins raid is becoming an annual tradition (won it last year with Macdermott).

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🔥 Strongest Contender: ROCK MY WAY (Joe Tizzard)

🔹 Timeform Adjusted Rating: 160 (top-rated)
🔹 Profile Notes:

• “Tall, useful-looking gelding… excellent 2nd to Haiti Couleurs at Cheltenham, pulling 4½ lengths clear of the rest in a true stamina test. Has form at this trip and will stay beyond 3¾m. Acted well on soft and good ground. Often in cheekpieces; now in blinkers.”
  🔹 Strengths:
  • Massive stamina confirmed.
  • Ridden prominently — pace map positive.
  • High-class NH Chase 2nd is the standout form in this field.
  • Peak form arriving at just the right time. 🔹 Weaknesses:
  • Needs to jump cleanly – can hit one.

📌 Verdict: Looks tailor-made for this. Major stamina test, suited pace setup, peak recent form. The one to beat.

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💣 Main Dangers (Group 1 Challengers):

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🧨 CHOSEN WITNESS (W. P. Mullins)

🔹 Timeform: 153p – the “p” screams untapped potential
🔹 Profile Notes:

• “Rangy gelding… useful hurdler… form steadily improving over fences. Third in a Fairyhouse maiden over 2½m; now steps up nearly a mile in trip. Trainer won this race last year.”
  🔹 Strengths:
  • Mullins knows how to win this — Macdermott (2024).
  • Unexposed, potential huge upside.
  • Tongue tie + prominent form. 🔹 Weaknesses:
  • Slight pace concern — tends to be held up.
  • Untested at marathon trip, though bred for it.

📌 Verdict: Massive player if he stays. You’d be brave to rule out a Mullins plot job with a well-handicapped improver.

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🧨 SURREY QUEST (Toby Lawes)

🔹 Timeform: 157
🔹 Profile Notes:

• “Ran a stormer when a nose second to Macdermott in this race last year on just 1lb worse terms. Stays 4m, acts on heavy. Warmed up with 3rd in the Edinburgh National.”
  🔹 Strengths:
  • Course and distance form – runner-up last year.
  • Well-prepped – looks aimed at this.
  • Solid mid-pack position suits the race’s flow. 🔹 Weaknesses:
  • Rarely wins – does he find one too good again?

📌 Verdict: Bulletproof each-way shout, and hard to keep out of the frame.

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🧨 OLYMPIC MAN (W. P. Mullins)

🔹 Timeform: 157+
🔹 Profile Notes:

• “Useful form over hurdles and fences. Naas chase win showed a bit of grit – found extra when pressed. Still learning but stamina is strong. Could be Mullins’ No.1 play.”
  🔹 Strengths:
  • Stays well, improving.
  • Wears first-time headgear (x) – typical Mullins tactic. 🔹 Weaknesses:
  • Sometimes sketchy at his fences.

📌 Verdict: Flying under the radar a bit — real staying type, trainer form red-hot.

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🧨 THE KNIPHAND (N. Twiston-Davies)

🔹 Timeform: 158
🔹 Profile Notes:

• “Winner of two novice chases this season; good 2nd in Grimthorpe Chase last time. Will stay. Progressive type.”
  🔹 Strengths:
  • Improving with every run.
  • One of the strongest finishers on figures. 🔹 Weaknesses:
  • Yet to tackle this kind of distance, but pedigree says yes.

📌 Verdict: On the upgrade and well-handicapped. Big player if he takes to the marathon trip.

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🔍 Other Notes & Pertinent Timeform Comments

• MACDERMOTT (Mullins, last year’s winner): Form this season poor but “shaped better than pulled-up suggests” last time. One-run horse? Place-only angle.
• CAPTAIN CODY (Mullins): Unseated in NH Chase, but solid maiden form. Don’t rule out a surprise.
• WISEGUY (Henderson): “Goes well fresh” – this could be the plan, but overall profile inconsistent.
• OUR POWER (Sam Thomas): Solid handicapper, Smart Stat standout trainer for chasers — 33/1 looks big.

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🏇 Trainers With Previous Wins

• W. P. Mullins: 2024 (Macdermott) – has 5 runners again. Wouldn’t shock if he dominates.
• Nicky Richards: 2019 (Takingrisks) – saddles Famous Bridge (faded in the Ultima, will need to bounce back).
• Christian Williams (2022, 2023): No runner this year — worth noting his absence.

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🧾 Final Summary

🟨 Strongest Contender:
ROCK MY WAY – Ticks all the boxes: stamina, pace setup, peaking at the right time. Best adjusted figure.

🟨 Main Dangers:

• CHOSEN WITNESS – Big improver, trainer knows the route.
• SURREY QUEST – Plotted all season for this.
• OLYMPIC MAN – Dark horse from the same yard.
• THE KNIPHAND – Stays, improves, dangerous at the weights.

🟨 Live Outsiders:

• OUR POWER – Smart Stats flag + proven class.
• MACDERMOTT – Last year’s hero, watch market late.