Race Setup:

Going: Yielding to soft (soft in places)

Pace Forecast: Very strong — and that’s vital. Those who force or race prominently will likely suffer unless class carries them. Expect the closers and late movers to benefit most.



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Strongest Contender:

Jazzy Matty (Cian Collins / Danny Gilligan)

Timeform 156 | OR 125 | 10st 9lb

Key Line: “Better than ever when winning the Grand Annual… potentially well treated back over hurdles.”

Ran a stormer to win the Cheltenham Grand Annual, looking stronger the further they went. He’s 10lb+ well-in on cross-code form and is 3/5 over hurdles in Ireland. Back over timber and drawn to sit off the tear-up, this is a major ‘go day’ setup.

Trainer Cian Collins won this race last year with Risk Belle and brings another well-timed runner with proven Festival class.

Verdict: Massive chance. Pace, mark, and profile all aligned.



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Main Dangers:

Kalix Delabarriere (Willie Mullins / Paul Townend)

Timeform 147p | OR 125 | 10st 9lb

Won his maiden under a stranglehold and is chucked straight into a competitive handicap — classic Mullins “on the improve” signal. Form behind decent types, handles the ground, and Townend rides (36% strike rate at Fairyhouse).

Mullins has won 5 of the last 10 runnings — this could well be today’s ‘go day’ for Kalix, especially since his other runners are either exposed or likely handbrakes.

Verdict: Big player. Dark profile. Top stable targeting this race again.


Serienmond (Gavin Cromwell / C. Stone-Walsh)

Timeform 154 | OR 117 | 10st 1lb

Looked wildly well-treated when hacking up on her yard debut at Leopardstown. Now only up to 117 and travelled like a Group horse in a handicap. Cromwell has a history of target wins on second starts after a yard switch, and this mare scythed through the field last time off a searching pace — exactly what she’ll get here again.

Verdict: Strong each-way credentials. Could explode again off this mark.



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Who’s Trying? Who’s Not?

Let’s play “Spot the Plot”:

Trying – Go Days:

Jazzy Matty – Back from chasing, off a win in the Grand Annual, lower hurdle mark. Today’s the target.

Kalix Delabarriere – Entered straight into this by a yard that farms the race. No other Mullins runner has Townend or anything unexposed.

Serienmond – Yard debut winner by 3 lengths, looks plotted off 117. Travelled like a dream.

Zillow – Mullins again, first-time handicap mark off 120 after holding her own in deep maidens. Sneaky improver.


Not Trying – Handbrake Jobs / Off Days:

Sea of Sands – Good back-form but tailed off last time, vibes lukewarm, not a go day.

Anotherway – Two awful runs since switching stables, market says ‘not yet’.

Gold Dancer – Pulled up last time, long layoff before that, Mullins also unlikely to send three runners here for the win.



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Dark Horses:

Joyeuse – Nicky Henderson ships her across for a crack after running sixth in the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. A return to handicap company could spark a return to form.

Stormbreaker – Huge price for a runner with form that fits. Has excuses at Cheltenham and could be a surprise closer. Mullins often leaves one in the market to drift and deliver…



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Trainer Watch:

Willie Mullins: 5 wins in this race since 2014. Kalix has the profile of their “No.1,” with Zillow as the wildcard. Others look to be supporting acts.

Cian Collins: Won this last year. Jazzy Matty could be better than Risk Belle, especially off 125.

Gavin Cromwell: Yard switch = win with Serienmond. Follow-ups are common from this stable.



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TimeWise Verdict:

Top Pick: Jazzy Matty – on a ‘go day,’ well treated, and built for the race setup.
Main Danger: Kalix Delabarriere – typical Mullins plot job, ready to peak.
Each-Way Angle: Serienmond – bursting with potential off 117.
Wild Value: Stormbreaker – closer with a good profile who could shock at a price.