Listed Novices’ Hurdle | 2m7f207y | Good to Soft | Strong Pace Forecast

A cracking renewal of this stamina test, with depth, multiple last-time-out winners, and some fascinating Irish raiders. Let’s dig beneath the surface and work out who’s playing, who’s plotting, and which yards mean business.


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The Strongest Contender

MISTER MEGGIT (Jonjo O’Neill Jr / Jonjo & A.J. O’Neill)

TimeWise Top Ranked 🏇

Timeform: 154p | HRB: Race likely suits hold-up horses | Trends: Perfect fit on OR (140s band is 100% strike rate)

This lad ticked nearly every box in the Sefton at Aintree—until he didn’t. Travelled like a dream, loomed up 2 out, then made a howler at the last. Still ran fourth. That was a Grade 1, and he’s now back in calmer waters, with an ideal pace setup (strong gallop + rear-runner bias). Only downside? Connections don’t always go all-in at Perth—but this smells like a confidence-boosting “go day.”

Verdict: Everything about this screams “Listed winner in waiting.” If he jumps clean, hard to beat.


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Main Dangers & Go-Day Alerts

INTENSE APPROACH (James Bowen / John McConnell)

Trainer has 2 wins in this race | 4-time winner this season | Front-runner

McConnell has won this race twice in 10 years (from minimal runners). This gelding reeled off 4 wins before pulling up in the Sefton. He made the running that day and got swallowed late, so the test was a bit much—but today’s drop in class and return to less competitive company could see a return to form. Stable often targets these raids with precision.

Verdict: Front-runner may be vulnerable to closers, but a clear “trying” profile with real Listed form.


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HORACES PEARL (Connor Brace / Fergal O’Brien)

Trainer in hot form | 149+ TF | Held up – ideal for this race’s pace bias

Unbeaten in bumpers and smooth in novice hurdles before a flat fifth in the Mersey (behind a strong field). That was a deeper race than this, and he wasn’t knocked about. O’Brien doesn’t send them this far north unless there’s intent—and that run screams “prep for go day.” Pace setup suits, and stamina will be fine.

Verdict: Bounced out of pattern company, could easily rebound. Danger if ridden quietly.


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MINELLA RESCUE (J. Hogan / Gary Hanmer)

151 TF | Best run last time in the Sefton | Hold-up type | Improver

Strong-finishing second in the Sefton (same race as Mister Meggit), but was a 50/1 outsider. That’s both a red flag and a clue—was the stable expecting it? Hanmer’s a smaller operator, but this gelding has been ridden like a project. No doubt about stamina and form now. Market support would speak volumes.

Verdict: Very strong trends match, could be a value angle—but is this a plotted sneaky tilt or just another run? One to watch.


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BALLYGUNNER CASTLE (Rachael Blackmore / Willie Mullins)

Strong Irish form | 153 TF | Mullins hot right now

Big run at Fairyhouse last time – strong third in a competitive race. Now gets Rachael, the hood/tongue tie combo, and a race with a proper gallop. Mullins has not won this race yet but this looks like a genuine challenger, not a no-hoper travelling for the sake of it.

Verdict: Could improve again at this trip. Genuine danger if the market speaks.


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Handbrake Watch – Who Might Not Be Trying?

JUPITER DES MOTTES (Patrick Wadge / Lucinda Russell)

Local yard, but hurdles form just fair | Not bred for stamina

Lucinda Russell has a fine Perth record, but this lad’s profile screams prep run. Beaten comfortably last time, this feels like a horse being nursed along—maybe chasing is the main plan.


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GO WEST (Harry Cobden / Paul Nicholls)

Won last 3, including 25L stroll – but race fell apart

He’s unbeaten in three but beat nothing of note and jumped into empty air at Kempton. Nicholls knows how to pick his spots but tends to use Perth as a learning ground, not a plunder mission. Strong horse – but form not as strong as bare figures suggest.


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Trainer Trends That Matter

McConnell: 2 winners from just a handful – INTENSE APPROACH is targeted.

Lucinda Russell: Top local strike rate at Perth, but rarely lands this particular prize.

Willie Mullins: Only recently started targeting this race – BALLYGUNNER CASTLE and KISS WILL both intriguing.

O’Brien & Nicholls: Both cautious travellers north – when they send one, take notice.



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Verdict

This has the potential to become a strongly-run test of stamina, favouring those ridden cold with experience in deeper races. The trends point squarely to a few key types.

Win Bet: MISTER MEGGIT

Back in calmer waters, shaped like a star in the Sefton and everything about this track/race setup looks ideal. Jumping is the only concern.

Main Dangers:

INTENSE APPROACH – Trainer means business here.

HORACES PEARL – Ideal setup, may bounce back sharply.

MINELLA RESCUE – Massive value if connections fancy another crack.