A 16-runner snake pit of a Listed handicap, packed with pace, plotters, and spring festival raiders. With a very strong pace forecast, stamina and positioning will matter—no good being a hold-up merchant out the back. Proven 2m4f form, tactical speed, and a little forgiveness for a recent no-show are all on the menu.


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Strongest Contender: JAZZY MATTY (Cian Collins / Danny Gilligan)

TimeWise Top Ranked🏇

Rating: 156 | OR: 125 | Timeform: “potentially well treated back over hurdles”

Back over hurdles off a 10lb lower mark than he won the Grand Annual with at Cheltenham—one of the best pieces of form in the race. He’s tactically versatile, handles a strong gallop, acts on heavy, and the Grand Annual is a serious stamina test at 2m.

He’s run well fresh in the past, and the fact connections run here rather than stay chasing screams intent. Timeform flags “jumped soundly” and “better than ever,” and there’s no doubt this has been in the sights. Only concern? The trainer is ice cold (0-23 last 30 days). But this is a “go day.”

Verdict: The form pick. Aimed at this. Pace will suit. Top chance.


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Main Dangers:

KALIX DELABARRIERE (Willie Mullins / Paul Townend)

Rating: 147p | OR: 125 | Timeform: “remains open to improvement”

Willie has won this 5 times in 10 years, and this is clearly his #1 bullet today. Handicapping for the first time, Townend rides (36% at track), and Timeform note that she “stayed on well” LTO and still has “more to come.”

Big danger, but hasn’t been tested in the heat of a proper handicap yet. With a strong gallop and soft ground, stamina will be tested, and this is much more attritional than Naas maidens.

Go Day or Handbrake? Definite go day—Townend rides, stable’s best hope.


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SERIENMOND (Gavin Cromwell / C. Stone-Walsh)

Rating: 154 | OR: 117 | Timeform: “rapid headway home turn”

Thumped a Leopardstown field last time—Cromwell gave her 3 months off, fitted a hood, and bang—career best. She was held up, crept through, and bolted up like a horse still very well handicapped.

Now up 8lbs, but still possibly well in, especially if the race collapses late. Cromwell has a second runner (Stuntman Steve) who looks a setup horse—handicap mark-priming operation, perhaps?

Go Day? Yep. The setup smells like this is the one with the handbrake off.


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LE GRAND PEINTURE (Lorna Fowler / Jack Gilligan)

Rating: 144p | OR: 133 | Timeform: “open to more improvement”

Won his maiden by 14 lengths in heavy ground, made all at Navan, and showed clear signs of engine. Steps into a handicap now, and Timeform flags “ridden positively” and “left previous yard after one start”—a sign connections knew what they had.

Could get swallowed late, but a strong-staying front-runner on soft is never a bad idea in a muddling race.

Go Day? Yes. Positive tactics likely again—should be prominent early.


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Lurkers / Plot Watchers:

AMANHA

LTO winner, only just up in grade, stays 2m well, and comes from a yard that doesn’t waste entries at this level. She’s under the radar, and Patrick O’Hanlon keeps the ride, another clue this is a “go day.”

ZILLOW

Mullins 4th string? Maybe, but Timeform has him rated 149p, and he’s just starting out in handicaps. The market will tell us more—watch for late support.

STUNTMAN STEVE

The Cromwell “B” horse, ran yesterday (Monday), came second—not ruled out if he backs up. More likely a setup job for his stablemate.


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Who’s Not Trying Today?

STORMBREAKER – Strong pace and hold-up style is a toxic mix here. 0 from 10 for horses beaten 10th LTO in this race.

AMERICAN MONEY – Consistent but exposed; poor trend profile for LTO 2nd.

SEA OF SANDS – Has talent, but jumping gone to pieces, and WPM isn’t hiding this one.

JOYEUSE – Classy mare, but Cheltenham form rarely holds up in this race and carrying top weight in this ground? Ask a lot.



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Verdict:

WIN – JAZZY MATTY (massive form, well handicapped, good pace setup)

DANGER – KALIX DELABARRIERE (progressive and primed by the king of this race)

E/W VALUE – SERIENMOND (still ahead of the assessor), LE GRAND PEINTURE (bold front-runner), AMANHA (filly on the up)