A fairly open Class 3 novice handicap chase with 9 declared, but not all look like today is the day. With a weak pace forecast, those ridden handily or with tactical versatility will be at a definite advantage at this tricky turning track.


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Strongest Contender: RATTLING ROAD (IRE)

Trainer: Lucinda Russell | Jockey: Jack Power (5)
Timeform: 141p
This is the type of horse that wins these races. Lightly raced, progressive chaser, who’s already two-from-three over fences, and was unlucky not to be three-from-three when mugged late at Newcastle.

Pace: Will race prominently—huge edge today with no guaranteed pace.

Trends Fit: 8yo, OR 120, 11-0, and a Group 1 TimeWise rating, all match past winners’ profiles here.

Trainer/Jockey Angle: Jack Power is 27% when it’s his only ride of the day – strong intent signal.

Go Day? Yes. Been freshened up since Feb, returns in first-time blinkers and a soft early market nudge seals it.


Verdict: Very strong claims. Profiled for this race. Everything lines up. Backing up his last three chase runs should put him in front.


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Main Dangers:

DENEMETHY (IRE)

Trainer: Fergal O’Brien | Jockey: J. Hogan
Timeform: 140
Has form behind subsequent winners, and the trainer’s red-hot, shipping one runner here for a valuable prize. Was only just denied by Homme D’un Soir at Market Rasen, and now steps up in trip.

Trend Sweet Spot: OR 123, weight 11-3 (sweet-spot for this race), aged 7—ticks all boxes.

Pace: Should sit close enough to take advantage.

Go Day? Strong case. O’Brien knows this type inside out. Likely primed for this—no reason to hold back.


Verdict: Must go well, especially with stable flying. This is his trip, his grade, and he’s not over-faced by this mark.


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NEXT LEFT (IRE)

Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton
Timeform: 144

TimeWise Top Ranked 🏇
A touch of class and back on a good mark. Hasn’t been disgraced in stronger fields and drops back into calmer waters.

Track Shape Suit: Strong, sturdy galloper who’ll race handily—huge bonus.

Trainers’ Intent Clue: Skelton rarely sends one to Perth without a live chance. Looks a touch of market disinterest, but could be a “go late” type—watch for support.

Trends Fit: 9yo (just OK), OR 114 (low but not out of range), has won over trip.

Go Day? Maybe. Fit, strong jockey booked, but may need this to slip into a better race later in spring.


Verdict: Big price for a two-time novice winner. Dangerous if it’s a “today’s the day” mission.


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Other Notables:

OSTEND (IRE)

Bolted up last time in a small field, but soft lead that day flattered him.

This is a deeper race and will be pressured more.

Possible Handbrake Job? May be a sighter for summer targets.


BOIS GUILLBERT (FR)

Trend profile is poor: held-up, regressed badly LTO, form dipped hard.

Lucinda Russell 0-from-4 in this race—a slight concern.

Go Day? Not convinced. Likely prep for another day.


INOX ALLEN (FR)

Yard has a decent first-time headgear stat, but form isn’t stacking up and may be being lined up for a 0-110 race soon.

Handbrake likely still on.


DARE TO SHOUT

Honest sort, but looks exposed. Consistently second or third. Not progressive.

Could sneak a place if the race falls apart.



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Pertinent Trends from HRB & Timeform Recap

Best age = 7yo (30% win rate), with 8yo next best.

Best weight band = 11-3 to 11-7 (Rattling Road & Denemethy tick this).

Market leaders dominate, especially favs and 2nd favs (60% win combined).

Days since run = 31–60 days optimal (Denemethy, Next Left, Rattling Road).

Hold-up horses struggle at this trip and track—back pace-pushers.



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Conclusion & Verdict

This looks like a straight shootout between RATTLING ROAD and DENEMETHY, with both carrying ideal profiles, solid chase form, and trainers who are clearly “trying” today. Rattling Road edges it on raw progression and race fitness.

Play Suggestions:

Win: RATTLING ROAD

Reverse Forecast: RATTLING ROAD / DENEMETHY

Watch Market for: NEXT LEFT — money = go day