Pace Forecast: Very Weak
Historical Trends: Favour runners rated 126–138, recent runs (8–15 days ideal), top 5 in market, and proven stamina at/above this trip.
Winning Trainers Past 4 Years: Olly Murphy (2024), Laura Morgan (2023), Gordon Elliott (2022), Nicky Henderson (2021)


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Strongest Contender: DOCTOR KEN (Olly Murphy / Sean Bowen)

TimeWise Top Ranked 🏇

Timeform Rating: 160 | OR: 135 | Days Since Run: 150

Trend Fit: OR right in the hot zone. Trainer won this last year with Sure Touch. Jockey Sean Bowen also rode that winner and boasts a 29% strike rate at Perth.

Profile Insight: Returns from a break but has gone very well fresh in the past. Was second last time out at Kempton after a 21-month layoff and has reportedly done well at home since. A strong traveller in a race forecast to lack pace.

Pace Suitability: Ticks the box—expected to be handy in a weakly run race.

Verdict: If fit, he’s the one they all have to beat—trends, form, and pace setup are aligned.



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Main Dangers

HELTENHAM (Dan Skelton / Harry Skelton)

Timeform Rating: 159 | OR: 134 | Days Since Run: 5

Finished second at Newton Abbot just five days ago, shaping well from a tough position.

Timeform notes he raced too freely too early there but still held on strongly to be runner-up.

Negatives: A very quick return to the track, and he tends to be held up, which isn’t ideal with a forecast crawl up front.

Positives: Now running from 2lb below his last winning mark, and connections are respected.

Verdict: Should go well if the pace unexpectedly lifts, but a touch vulnerable given setup.


WALK ON QUEST (Lucinda Russell / Patrick Wadge)

Timeform Rating: 157 | OR: 124 | Days Since Run: 40

Racked up 4 wins on the bounce earlier this season, including over this trip at Kelso and Carlisle.

Front-runner likely to take them along and will love a soft lead—but OR 124 is historically cold in this race (no wins from 15+).

Pulled up last time and trainer Lucinda Russell is 0/7 in this race historically.

Verdict: Dangerous if bouncing back and getting loose on the front, but needs to defy a tough stat profile.



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Others Briefly

TOMMYS OSCAR – Very high class but burdened with 12-0 and a mark of OR 149—trends are brutal against him here. Lively outsider, but likely too much weight.

STATUARIO – Four-time course winner and could run into a place at a price. OR 127, age 10, and Hughes 0/7 in this race are drawbacks.

DUBAI DAYS – 11yo, just 5 days off a fall (UR). Typically held up and doesn’t shape as the ideal fit despite some solid old form.

REXEM – Off 319 days and likely to need the run. Has early pace but form not strong enough to defy the absence.



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Verdict Summary

Most Likely Winner: DOCTOR KEN – every angle covered, including past winner trends, trainer stats, freshness, and tactical pace edge.

Main Danger: HELTENHAM – good form but held-up style and short turnaround dent confidence.

Dark Horse: WALK ON QUEST – if he gets an uncontested lead and rebounds from last time, could go close.