€9,600) on yielding to soft ground, drawn from form analysis, Timeform insights, pace/draw data, and trainer patterns:


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Race Setup & Tactical Overview

This 15-runner handicap is forecast to be run at a very strong pace, and the draw bias is firmly against low numbers, so horses with tactical speed drawn middle-to-high have a big edge. Prominent racers tend to dominate this trip at Tipperary in similar conditions, which puts hold-up horses like Ard Na Mara at a tactical disadvantage despite their raw ratings.


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Strongest Contender:

CHEEKY WINK (drawn 1, trained by J P Murtagh)

Form + Trainer Trend: Returned with a big run in a hot Leopardstown handicap (third to Himalayan Heights) off a 6-month break. Murtagh’s runners are flying right now, and this filly is on the up.

Timeform Comment: “Useful performer… acts on all ground… headgear retained.”

Pace Map Fit: Tactically ideal—sits handy, handles juice, and is likely to get the run of the race from a prominent early spot despite the low draw.

Note: She traded very short in-running last time—one to trust from an EW point of view with a tactical edge.



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Main Dangers:

ROBBIES ROCK (drawn 13, Gavin Cromwell)

TimeWise Top Ranked 🏇

Form: Has a progressive profile on both turf and over hurdles. Strong second in a deeper contest at Listowel last time when forced to come from off the pace.

Timeform Comment: “Fairly useful… acts on soft… placed over further… has more to offer.”

Positive Angle: Still unexposed over staying trips and could relish a pace meltdown if he holds a good stalking position.


SIR CALLISTO (drawn 7, A J Martin)

Form: Dug deep to win at Dundalk latest—tough customer who stays well. Has tongue tie retained.

Trainer Angle: Martin is +£32.59 to £1 level stakes when sending just one runner to a flat card—knows the time of day with this type.

Timeform Comment: “Confirmed return to form… has worn hood… reliable at this level.”

Tactical Note: Likely to sit mid-div and could benefit if it turns into a proper slog.


ROCK OF IRELAND (drawn 5, A McIntyre)

Profile: Lightly raced and ran a cracker off a layoff at Cork, suggesting plenty more to come.

Pace Fit: Should be able to slot in just behind the leaders—well positioned for the expected shape.



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Notables / Watch-List:

ARD NA MARA (drawn 10, J S Bolger): Timeform top-rated and second in a good Leopardstown race LTO—but the pace/draw setup is against her, and she typically comes from off the speed. Could be outpaced mid-race despite talent.

CALZAGHI (drawn 9, K T Coleman): Timeform stat pick with +£38.22 LSP when the stable has a sole runner on a flat card. Might be underestimated after needing the run last time.

Trainer History in Race:
While there’s no standout repeat trainer in this specific handicap in recent years, Gavin Cromwell, A J Martin, and J P Murtagh all have a strong record at Tipperary with middle-distance handicappers and have booked top riders.



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Final Verdict:

Top Selection: Cheeky Wink – ticking every box tactically with a big run in the book and trainer flying.

Main Dangers: Robbies Rock (very solid), Sir Callisto (value), Rock of Ireland (on the up).

Watch for Market Movers: If Calzaghi or Sir Callisto are backed late, they could be very live in what looks a deep renewal.