A competitive renewal of the Highland National, run over a stamina-sapping 3m6f121y on good to soft ground. With no guaranteed strong pace on paper (Timeform pace forecast: Very Weak), this may turn tactical, favouring those who race handily and stay every yard.

Historically, the race has gone the way of battle-hardened stayers, with 6 of the last 8 winners aged 8 or older, all rated 104–125. Course form and proven stamina at extreme distances are reliable guides.


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Strongest Contender

IF NOT FOR DYLAN (TFR 130, Trainer: Lucinda Russell)
The 2023 winner of this race, he returned from a 20-month absence to win stylishly at Newcastle in January on just his second start for the yard. That run came off a mark of 114, and he’s only 4lb higher now, suggesting there’s still value in his current rating.

The likely slow gallop suits his prominent style, and with proven stamina, course experience, and a capable 3lb claimer booked, he looks primed to repeat the feat. One of only two runners with course and distance-winning form in the field, he stands out in both the ratings and race shape.

Key Comments

“Made all/jumped soundly” at Newcastle, which bodes well for a race lacking pace.

Timeform: “Remains on a workable mark up 4 lb and shades preference.”



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Main Dangers

FAIRLAWN FLYER (TFR 132, Trainer: Peter & Michael Bowen)
Chasing a hat-trick after wins at Market Rasen and Huntingdon in March, he’s clearly thriving. Both those victories came over slightly shorter, and while he shapes like a stayer, this will be his first go beyond 3m2f. He’s unexposed at marathon trips and is well-handicapped on his current form.
Watch the market: any drift would be a negative given he’s returning within a month of his latest run.

JACKS PARROT (TFR 130, Trainer: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero)
Still only a 6yo, he has already won twice over fences, including here at Perth, and shaped encouragingly when third at Exeter over 3m1f. The stamina test is a question mark, but he’s on the upgrade and his yard has a fine record with stayers.

BUSTY BOY (TFR 131, Trainer: Daragh Bourke)
A consistent type who has been knocking on the door in recent months. He’s often patiently ridden, which may not suit the expected pace scenario, but he stays 3m well and is worth consideration for place money.


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Live Outsiders & Notables

INIS OIRR (TFR 128+, Trainer: Lucinda Russell)
Won the Edinburgh National in 2023/24 but has looked a little flat in recent runs. The slow pace may suit his prominent racing style, and connections do well when stepping runners up in trip.
Note: Trainer has a strong record in staying chases and this horse is better than his recent form suggests.

MONOCHROMIX (TFR 129, Trainer: Lucinda Russell)
Still a maiden but has hinted at ability and is another from a yard with a good strike rate when upping runners in distance. Backers would want a price, but he could trade shorter in-running given his running style.

SHIGHNESS (TFR 129, Trainer: Micky Hammond)
Returned to form last time out and stays 4m, but her hold-up style looks a poor match for the anticipated crawl. She’s tough, though, and has Brian Hughes on board — not to be dismissed completely.


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Trainer Watch

Lucinda Russell – Won this race in 2023 with If Not For Dylan and sends three: Dylan, Inis Oirr, and Monochromix. Notably profitable with chasers stepped up in trip.

Peter Bowen – Co-trains Fairlawn Flyer, and his runners often improve markedly when finding rhythm in staying races.

John McConnell – Sends Bodhisattva, a thorough stayer with National form, though possibly weighted to the max.



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Trends & Insights

8 of last 10 winners carried 11st+, and 6 of last 8 winners were rated 110–125.

5 of last 6 winners had run within 35 days – watch for market moves on those returning from longer breaks (e.g. If Not For Dylan – 87 days).

Course winners and CD form highly significant, particularly at this unusual trip.



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Summary Verdict

A tight race in ratings terms, but IF NOT FOR DYLAN has all the credentials to repeat his 2023 success — he’s a proven stayer, likely front-runner, and comes from a yard with a good record in the race.

Main dangers:

Fairlawn Flyer, if handling the trip

Jacks Parrot, if improving again

Inis Oirr, if bouncing back


Each-way punters might also keep Busty Boy onside for a place, and Monochromix could be the surprise packet based on the trainer’s angle.