15:52 Perth – Campbell & Son Roofing Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – Race Preview

A competitive renewal of the Campbell & Son Roofing Handicap Hurdle over a demanding three miles and two furlongs, with a good-sized field and an even-looking pace forecast suggesting tactical speed and stamina will both be at a premium.

The going is described as Good to Soft (Good in places), which should be fair to all. Twelve runners are set to line up, with several holding solid claims based on Timeform adjusted ratings and trainer records worth noting.


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Strongest Contender

Kilbarry Hill (TFR 134)
Trained by Olly Murphy and partnered by Sean Bowen, Kilbarry Hill appeals as the most solid option. He has progressed steadily this season, landing three wins including a competitive handicap at Uttoxeter in December. He shaped better than the bare result when midfield at Haydock last time in a stronger race. The trainer boasts an excellent 26% strike rate at Perth, and Sean Bowen rides this course particularly well (29%). Although he is unproven over this extreme distance, his form profile suggests he has the right blend of class and staying power, and the market strength behind him is encouraging. If he stays, he will be difficult to beat.


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Main Dangers

Jem In Em (TFR 137)
Jem In Em produced a career-best last time when finishing second at Hexham, shaping like a horse well suited to staying trips. He comes here on the back of a strong run, but there is a note of caution: the likely even gallop might not play fully to his deep-staying strengths. He remains fairly treated, however, and will be seen to best effect if this becomes more of a test than expected.

Guard The Moon (TFR 136)
A dual hurdle winner earlier in the season, Guard The Moon comes into this off two below-par efforts, but a return to calmer waters could suit. The Timeform pace hint suggests that a steady early gallop would suit him better than some, and he has the tactical speed to hold a good position. He could easily bounce back and is one to respect under James Turner.

Wa Wa (TFR 135)
Another from the Olly Murphy yard, Wa Wa ran a respectable race at Market Rasen before disappointing last time at Fakenham. A subsequent breathing operation could unlock improvement. He stays well, and if able to sit handy, he would not be a surprise placegetter.


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Others to Consider

Felicie Du Maquis (TFR 132) is a tough and consistent mare seeking a hat-trick after wins at Ludlow and Ffos Las. She is proven over 3m and handles soft ground. Although facing stronger opposition now, her attitude is a major asset.

North Parade (TFR 135x) also makes appeal from a stamina perspective and represents a stable enjoying a purple patch. However, he returns from 83 days off the track; any significant market weakness would temper enthusiasm.



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Pertinent Trends & Trainer Notes

Olly Murphy has an excellent recent record at Perth (26% winners since 2020/21), and he saddles two leading players here in Kilbarry Hill and Wa Wa.

Donald McCain and Lucinda Russell have historically been trainers to follow in long-distance handicaps at Perth, although neither has a leading fancy based solely on current ratings.

Previous winners of this race (Fortuna Ligna, Burbank, Taxmeifyoucan) were aged 7–11 and were all reasonably fresh for the time of year, favouring horses with 1–3 recent runs.



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Horses Without Recent Runs – Caution

Several runners have long absences to overcome:

Wowsham (460 days off)

Theme Tune (70 days)

North Parade (83 days)


Given their lengthy layoffs, watch the market closely.
Any big pre-race drift would be a negative, especially for horses stepping into a relatively competitive Class 3.


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Summary

Kilbarry Hill is the strongest contender, bringing progressive form, a top Perth jockey, and a stable in great form at the track.
Jem In Em and Guard The Moon are the main dangers, with tactical pace likely to suit the latter more if the race develops steadily. Wa Wa is a lively outsider to keep on side, particularly if the breathing surgery has had a positive effect.

If backing anything with a long absence, tread carefully and watch the late betting moves.