19:40 Naas – Race Preview

The Naas Racecourse Business Club Blackwater Handicap has attracted a typically deep 16-runner field, and with the pace expected to be very strong and a bias against high draws, tactics and positioning are likely to play a crucial role. Recent winners of this race, such as Marty The Party (2024) and Immutable (2023), have generally been progressive types who were relatively well-positioned off a strong early gallop.

Strongest Contenders

Scott Key (Timeform TFR 105, OR 73 +7lb penalty)
Andrew Slattery’s gelding took a major step forward when overcoming a slow start and racing wide to win readily at Gowran last week. Despite a 7lb penalty, his revised mark still leaves him well-in on adjusted figures.
The strong pace scenario suits him ideally, as he can settle off the leaders and deliver late.
However, he is drawn 12, which is slightly wider than ideal at Naas over a mile, and it’s worth noting he only ran five days ago, so the quick turnaround is a mild query.
Trainer Adrian Slattery has not won this race before, but the horse’s profile is notably progressive.

Mississippi River (TFR 96, OR 85)
Ryan Moore rides for Aidan O’Brien, who boasts a 26% strike rate at Naas in the past few seasons.
A son of Frankel, he was tough and determined when winning a Navan maiden last time, making all.
Positives are his tactical speed and proven ability on varying ground, but the strong pace here may not suit a prominent runner, and the high draw (13) could leave him exposed.
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has yet to win this specific race recently, but naturally commands respect.


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Main Dangers

Bishopton (TFR 101, OR 77)
Transferred to Natalia Lupini (trainer with a £25.55 level stakes profit when having a sole runner at a flat meeting), Bishopton brings strong Dundalk form where he was a close second to a progressive sort.
The switch from all-weather to turf and a break of 131 days are small unknowns. Market strength would be encouraging for this lightly raced and well-drawn (stall 6) runner.
Definitely one to watch closely if strong pre-race.

Wizard of Odds (TFR 101, OR 89)
Second in a similar Naas handicap on reappearance and clearly retains ability.
However, the very strong early pace is a significant negative for him, based on Timeform’s race hints, as he is typically ridden prominently. Drawn 5 is a help, but overall race dynamics may not play to his strengths.


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Interesting Outsiders

Its All Peachy (TFR 89, OR 75)
Returned from a break with a promising third at Gowran. Connections (M.D. O’Callaghan and L.F. Roche) often bring horses on significantly for a run.
He is drawn well in 7, shapes like he will stay strongly, and should be suited by the strong pace.
Still relatively unexposed after just four starts and looks capable of outrunning his price.

Viking Invasion (TFR 96, OR 89)
Disappointed when favourite at Naas last time but was progressive as a two-year-old.
Wearing blinkers again and proven on softer ground, but another coming off a 36-day absence, so watch the market carefully for any signs of support or weakness.


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Other Points to Note

Horses returning after 60+ days off include: Bishopton (131d), Lady O (29d but light recent form), Sir Jeremy (36d), and Wizard of Odds (36d). These need a close eye on the betting for late moves or drifts.

Trainer trends: No trainer in the field has won this race in the past five renewals. However, note that Aidan O’Brien (Mississippi River) has historically strong general stats at Naas.

Pace Bias: Front-runners could be vulnerable. Horses that can settle midfield and come with a run, like Scott Key or Its All Peachy, may be favoured.

Draw Bias: Lower to middle stalls are preferred. High drawn horses like Scott Key (12) and Mississippi River (13) may need tactical rides.



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Summary

In a race where pace collapse is quite possible, Scott Key stands out as the horse with the clearest progressive profile, albeit from a less-than-ideal draw.
Bishopton is a fascinating alternative if the market speaks positively.
Amongst outsiders, Its All Peachy makes significant appeal to pick up pieces late off a strong gallop at a decent price.

Advice:

> Look to side with midfield closers over pace-forcers and monitor the market for late support, especially for those off long breaks.