(2m 149y, Yielding, 17 runners)

A typically competitive and deep renewal of this valuable handicap, featuring a mixture of seasoned campaigners, progressive younger hurdlers, and some interesting handicapping projects. The pace forecast is strong, which could set this up for horses ridden patiently off the speed.

Strongest Contenders

Serienmond (GER)
Trainer: Gavin Cromwell | Jockey: C. Stone-Walsh (3) | Adjusted TF Rating: 158
This German import has shown marked improvement since joining Gavin Cromwell, winning at Leopardstown before an excellent third at Fairyhouse last time behind Lord Erskine. That was a listed handicap and he fared best of the hold-up horses, shaping like one still ahead of his mark. Handles yielding ground well and arrives race-fit, ticking plenty of boxes. Weighted to go close, especially under a strong pace setup.

Lark In The Mornin (GER)
Trainer: Joseph Patrick O’Brien | Jockey: D. E. Mullins | Adjusted TF Rating: 157
Won the Fred Winter at Cheltenham last season and has campaigned solidly in valuable handicaps since. His County Hurdle run was below expectations, but the demands there were very different. Has the ability to bounce back in calmer waters, and his connections have a good record with target races at festivals. Market strength would be encouraging.

Wilful (IRE)
Trainer: Jonjo O’Neill | Jockey: Jonjo O’Neill Jr. | Adjusted TF Rating: 157
A tough and progressive handicap hurdler from Britain who has won four of his last six starts. Produced a career-best at Ayr last time, staying on strongly. He usually races up with the pace, which could make life tricky here if the race is as strongly run as predicted, but his straightforward attitude is a major asset.

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Main Dangers

Ascending Lark
Trainer: Harry Derham | Jockey: Paul O’Brien | Adjusted TF Rating: 150p
An unbeaten mare in five hurdle starts, Ascending Lark brings serious momentum and retains scope for more improvement. She travels strongly through her races and shapes like one capable of mixing it at listed level. However, she’s yet to face a field this deep, and it is worth noting she hasn’t run for 40 days — not a major concern but, combined with her inexperience, it advises a slightly cautious approach.

American Money (IRE)
Trainer: Eddie & Patrick Harty | Jockey: Rachael Blackmore | Adjusted TF Rating: 160
Consistent without winning recently, American Money has been knocking on the door in similar company. His prominent style should be an asset if he can settle behind the likely strong pace, and Rachael Blackmore is an obvious positive in big-field handicaps. Reliable for place purposes at least.

Iberico Lord (FR)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson | Jockey: M. P. Walsh | Adjusted TF Rating: 140
Winner of two major handicaps earlier this season (Greatwood and Betfair Hurdles), Iberico Lord is clearly talented but has gone off the boil in recent months. Returning after an 80-day break, it is advised to monitor the market closely for any signs of support or weakness, as Timeform flags a slight question mark over his current well-being.

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Interesting Outsiders

Helvic Dream (IRE)
Trainer: Noel Meade | Jockey: Donagh Meyler | Adjusted TF Rating: 158
A Group 1 Flat winner now turning his attention more seriously to hurdles. Has been steadily finding form and ran a cracker when second at Fairyhouse last time. Races off a workable mark and could easily outrun double-figure odds if adapting to the hustle and bustle of a race like this.

Impero (IRE)
Trainer: Cian Michael Collins | Jockey: Danny Gilligan | Adjusted TF Rating: 158
Lightly raced over hurdles and improving sharply. Won well at Ballinrobe last time and looks capable of further progress. His handy weight and strong travelling style will suit this scenario if the front-runners go too fast.

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Trends and Trainer Records

• Willie Mullins has won this race four times in the last 10 years (saddles Gaucher and Hunters Yarn today). Mullins-trained runners are always dangerous to ignore, but Gaucher and Hunters Yarn have a bit to prove based on their recent form and market positioning.
• Gordon Elliott, who trains outsider Samui, has two wins in the past decade.
• Horses who have run within the last 45 days tend to fare better; those off the track for longer (60 days+) should have their market moves watched closely — notably Iberico Lord, Hunters Yarn, Brentford Hope, and Samui.

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Timeform Comments of Note

• Serienmond: “Improved since joining Gavin Cromwell. At the foot of the weights, he looks very interesting.”
• Lark In The Mornin: “Compact gelding; useful hurdler. Never really looked like justifying support in the County Hurdle but he could easily bounce back.”
• American Money: “Looks pretty solid.”
• Ascending Lark: “Travels strongly; capable of better still.”

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Summary

This shapes as a race where a lightly-weighted improver coming late could capitalise on a likely strong pace. Serienmond looks particularly well suited, but Lark In The Mornin is a real danger if rediscovering his best form. Among those at bigger prices, Helvic Dream and Impero are the most compelling.

Patience and positioning will be everything — and keeping a close watch on late market moves, especially for those with longer absences, could prove decisive.