A field of seven lines up for this early-season Listed contest at Nottingham, where the emphasis will be on tactical speed given a weak pace forecast. While some come here race-fit, a number are returning from winter breaks, so market moves may offer important clues about readiness.

The average Timeform Race Winner (TRW) figure for the past five editions is 114, suggesting this typically demands a useful effort without requiring genuine Group-level performance.

Strongest Contenders

Karmology (TFR 112)
A likeable and lightly-raced 5-y-o trained by K.R. Burke, she progressed well last season, winning at York before placing in two Listed races. Her final outing at Newmarket was below par, but she’s capable fresh and has scope for further improvement with only 10 starts under her belt. The Timeform analyst pick, and rightly so, given her proven level at this grade. However, she’s been off since October (206 days), so any market weakness would be worth noting.

Francophone (TFR 114)
Charlie Johnston’s filly sets the standard on adjusted figures courtesy of her Listed win at Goodwood last summer and a creditable fourth in the G3 Pride Stakes at Newmarket. Usually races prominently, but with a weak pace forecast, she may not get an uncontested lead. She returns from a 200-day break, so punters should watch the betting for signs of fitness. The yard is in good form, and the filly is proven at this level.

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Main Dangers

Ambiente Amigo (TFR 119)
Timeform’s figures give her the highest rating, but those largely stem from handicaps. She made an encouraging return when second in a well-run Kempton event behind Teumessias Fox and looked stronger than ever. However, she is likely best at 12f and could be vulnerable if this becomes tactical on quicker ground. Still, her race-fitness is a major asset and trainer James Owen has a 22% strike rate over this trip.

Jane Temple (TFR 102p)
From the Gosden stable, this well-bred filly won a Southwell maiden on her second and final 3yo start and is open to considerable improvement. Her pedigree is excellent (by Siyouni out of a sister to Footstepsinthesand), and she has the Timeform ‘p’ symbol suggesting she’s expected to progress beyond her current mark. She’s been off 173 days, but the stable has a 21% strike rate in early-season runs, and with only two runs behind her, she’s one to keep an eye on.

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Interesting Outsiders

Mexicali Rose (TFR 110+)
Irish raider from Joseph O’Brien’s yard, she looked useful at times in 2024, including a win at Galway. Her reappearance effort at the Curragh was tame, but she was a big price and may have needed it. Likely to come on for that run, and her best form gives her a squeak at a place.

Rose Prick (TFR 110)
Often consistent in 2024 without winning, and her seasonal reappearance at Kempton wasn’t devoid of promise. The trip and ground should suit, and she usually races handily, which could be beneficial given the predicted slow early fractions. Not completely discounted if she comes forward again.

Ciara Pearl (TFR 106)
Multiple handicap winner in 2024, but well beaten on return at Leicester and steps up to Listed class here. With a Timeform rating some way below the principals and a 25-day absence since a below-par effort, she looks up against it.

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Trainer Record Note

• No trainers in the 2025 renewal have previously won this race in the past five editions. However, it’s worth noting that both the Gosdens and Sir Michael Stoute have strong historical form with fillies in early-season Listed races of this nature.
• John & Thady Gosden: 21% strike rate over this trip and in early-season; their runner Jane Temple fits the profile of past improvers in this race.

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📝 Summary and Advice

• Most Solid: Francophone – sets the standard, but may be vulnerable if not fully wound up.
• Best Bet: Karmology – likely improver with strong Listed form; watch the market for fitness clues.
• Big Danger: Ambiente Amigo – fit and in form, but possibly better over further.
• Potential Improver: Jane Temple – scope to progress significantly; trainer in form.
• Value Place Shot: Mexicali Rose – could bounce back second time up.

With the pace forecast weak, those with tactical speed or forward positioning may gain an edge. Watch the market carefully for any late drifts on those coming off layoffs, particularly Karmology and Francophone, who both bring solid form but may need the run.

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