A strongly-run Listed mares’ novice hurdle over a near two-mile trip caps off the middle of Thursday’s Punchestown card, with a solid turnout featuring both Festival form and progressive types. There is an established trend for leading yards here—Willie Mullins has taken 3 of the last 6 renewals, including with Gauloise (2021) and Elfile (2019), and fields two again in this year’s renewal.

The pace is forecast to be very strong, which could set things up for those who travel well and are ridden with restraint. With a range of profiles, from hardened campaigners to unexposed improvers, this is a deeper contest than the betting may initially suggest.

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🏇 Strongest Contenders

SIXANDAHALF (Gavin Cromwell) – Adjusted Timeform Rating: 154p
A classy mare who shaped like a top-level performer when finishing second to Air of Entitlement in the Dawn Run at Cheltenham. She travelled strongly through that big-field Grade 2 and pulled clear of the third, suggesting a Listed race like this is well within reach. She looks tactically versatile and should appreciate the strong pace.
Timeform comment: “Shaped like a mare out of the top drawer…”
Watch for: Any significant market weakness, as she has been beaten twice when trading odds-on in-running.

KAROLINE BANBOU (W.P. Mullins) – Adjusted Timeform Rating: 144
A strong fourth in the same Dawn Run race and likely better judged on that effort than her more recent sixth behind Aurora Vega at Fairyhouse, where the longer trip and testing ground possibly blunted her. A return to this distance could well suit, and Mullins’ strong Punchestown record must be respected.
Timeform Smart Stats: 25% strike rate for Mullins at Punchestown since 2021; 2 winners in the last 6 renewals of this race.
Watch for: Market signals after her recent below-par run just 11 days ago.

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⚠️ Main Dangers

MOZZIES SISTER (Declan Queally) – Adjusted Timeform Rating: 143
A tough and consistent mare with good form in Graded novice hurdles, including a second in the G2 at Limerick. Her recent fourth in the Shannon Spray may have come too soon or under conditions that didn’t play to her strengths. Now fitted with a first-time visor and dropped back in trip, she’s one of the most intriguing in here.
Timeform comment: “May bounce back from a disappointing effort last time.”
E/W angle: Place claims at fair odds in a field of 10.

KARAMOJA (W.P. Mullins) – Adjusted Timeform Rating: 140
Pulled up in March but bounced back to form with a decent third to Aurora Vega at Fairyhouse. Has had a fairly busy spring but generally holds her form well and will likely go forward or race prominently. Her rating puts her in the mix, although this track may place more emphasis on finishing speed.

TIMETOSHINE (Nicky Henderson) – Adjusted Timeform Rating: 139p
Unbeaten in three starts over hurdles in Britain, including an easy win at Chepstow last time. The British form is hard to quantify in this context, but her manner of victory and the “p” symbol on her rating suggests she’s still improving. Having her first run in Ireland and off 26 days’ rest, she adds a different dimension.
Watch for: Strong market support would be notable on stable debut here.

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💡 Interesting Outsiders

JANE EIRE (Henry de Bromhead) – Adjusted Timeform Rating: 135
Well held in the Dawn Run but made some late headway from an unpromising position. The application of both hood and tongue-tie may sharpen her up, though her form is below the principals on known evidence.

DREAM ON BABY (Emmet Mullins) – Adjusted Timeform Rating: 141
Placed behind Aurora Vega and Familiar Dreams in deeper company earlier in the spring, suggesting a Listed race like this is more her level. Hasn’t always found off the bridle, so might be one to watch for late gains in a well-run race.
Watch for: Support in the market after 49 days off.

COTTESLOE SUNSHINE (Joseph O’Brien) – Adjusted Timeform Rating: 139
Won a Listed contest at Thurles in December but was well beaten at Leopardstown in a big-field handicap when last seen. She’s back in a smaller field and has shown ability when fresh. Off 88 days, she could be an angle if there’s notable market interest.
Watch for: Market support or late money, given the break.

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📊 Summary

This Listed contest features genuine Festival form at the top of the market, but with a few lurking improvers and several with tactical speed, it’s not a one-horse race.

• Sixandahalf is the standout on Timeform ratings and brings serious Grade 2 form, with conditions and the race setup in her favour.
• Karoline Banbou and Mozzies Sister rate as the main threats, particularly if the leaders go too hard.
• Timetoshine adds an intriguing cross-channel angle, and Dream On Baby could outrun her odds if the race falls apart late.

Verdict: SIXANDAHALF is the one to beat and a likely winner if holding her Cheltenham form, but each-way players could do worse than look to MOZZIES SISTER and KAROLINE BANBOU, especially if market support comes late.