A competitive renewal of the Colm Quinn BMW Handicap Chase (Grade 3) with a field of fifteen declared and a strong pace forecast expected. Conditions are yielding, and the makeup of the field – with several habitual front-runners – could place the emphasis on stamina and jumping under pressure. With a solid blend of exposed handicap chasers and younger improvers, this shapes up as a proper spring puzzle.

Leading Contenders

Blue Lord
Timeform Adjusted Rating: 164
Although his mark of 151 demands a clear return to peak form, Blue Lord stands out on raw class. A Grade 1 winner at his best, he shaped well in the Betfair Ascot Chase behind Pic d’Orhy before pulling up in the Topham. That effort came after a short break, and he returns again after just under four weeks off. This drop into handicap company is a notable move by Willie Mullins, who has won two of the last five runnings. With Townend booked and a pace scenario to suit, he’s a strong player if bouncing back – though any market weakness late on should be heeded.

Lightkeeper
Timeform Adjusted Rating: 162
Lightkeeper is progressing fast, having landed a novice handicap in good style at Wexford on his latest outing. He’s up 8lb but did win with plenty in hand and looks to be going places. The concern, based on the Timeform pace forecast, is that he might find the relentless early tempo against him. Still, he remains unexposed, and if able to settle off the speed, he could continue to climb the ranks.

James du Berlais
Timeform Adjusted Rating: 161
Placed in the 2024 Topham and fifth in this year’s renewal, James du Berlais remains relatively lightly raced over fences. He ran well from off the pace last time and is another from the Mullins camp who fits the profile of one coming good at the right time. The key question is whether he can find the required finishing kick under these conditions, but his mark is workable, and any market strength would increase confidence.

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Main Dangers

Lets Go Champ
Timeform Adjusted Rating: 161
Won this race last year off a 3lb lower mark and arrives fresh after a break. He’s a horse who thrives in the spring and has Rachael Blackmore back on board. Although below form on his final run at Fairyhouse, he’s a confirmed stayer, acts on this ground, and is a ‘horse for course’ type. He’s been trained with this in mind and holds strong place claims.

Riaan
Timeform Adjusted Rating: 166
Shaped encouragingly when sixth in the Cheltenham Plate and looks to be coming back to something near his best. He’s a prominent racer, so the strong pace could test him, but he’s battle-hardened, has form at the trip, and his revised mark gives him a live each-way chance if the race falls into his lap late. One of the more interesting Elliott runners here.

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Interesting Outsiders

Grange Walk
Timeform Adjusted Rating: 159x
Finally got back to winning ways at Limerick earlier this month and seems to be enjoying himself again. He’s had a few tough assignments this season but now finds himself back on a competitive mark. While he often runs from the rear – not ideal in this setup – a strong pace could bring him into it. A win may be a stretch, but he’s one of the more appealing bigger-priced each-way options in a field of fifteen.

Mars Harper
Timeform Adjusted Rating: 163
His run in the Plate at Cheltenham showed there’s ability still there, and he may not have recovered in time for the Topham shortly after. Better suited to a more measured test, but he’s another who could outrun his odds if that Cheltenham form is a better guide to his current ability than Aintree.

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Trainer Trends

• Willie Mullins has won this race twice in the last decade (2022 with Royal Rendezvous and 2015 with The Paparrazi Kid). He saddles Blue Lord, James du Berlais, and Adamantly Chosen – all of whom are back within 30 days and worth monitoring.
• Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Lets Go Champ, won the race in 2024 and has trained his charge specifically for a repeat bid.
• Gordon Elliott is well-represented with Riaan, Lightkeeper, and Mars Harper – all live contenders on recent form.

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Timeform Profile Highlights & Smart Stats

• Blue Lord – 46% strike rate for Paul Townend at Punchestown; acts on heavy and yielding; best form at this trip.
• Lightkeeper – comes here in top form, 2/2 over fences; strong performance figures in novice company.
• Lets Go Champ – course winner; prepped specifically for this repeat bid; ground and distance ideal.
• Riaan – Timeform highest adjusted rating of the field (166); improved significantly at Cheltenham last time.
• James du Berlais – placed in the 2024 Topham; ran well in fifth in this year’s edition and now drops in class.

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Verdict

In a race where pace could play a major role, Blue Lord is hard to ignore from a handicapping perspective, especially if the market speaks in his favour. However, Riaan comes here off a strong Cheltenham run and looks very fairly treated. Lightkeeper is progressive but will need to adapt to a much fiercer early gallop, while Lets Go Champ appeals again with his proven track record. For each-way backers, Grange Walk might reward support at double-figure odds in a race that could collapse late on.