This is traditionally a smart early-season novice, regularly contested by promising types from powerful yards. With only six runners, depth is modest, but quality is assured, with at least two juveniles boasting significant potential. The pace forecast is very weak, suggesting a tactical race could unfold.


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Leading Contender

Moonfall (IRE) – Trainer: George Boughey | Jockey: Billy Loughnane | Adjusted TFR: 96p
Moonfall sets the clear standard on form and rating. He ran with notable promise when second to Military Code in a similar race over course and distance last month, pulling a long way clear of the remainder. The winner there is well regarded, and Moonfall looks sure to progress, especially as he showed professionalism from the gates and travelled powerfully. From a well-bred family (half-brother to smart Soprano), and with Boughey’s juveniles often sharpening up for a second run, he holds strong claims. Timeform notes that “however the race develops shouldn’t inconvenience Moonfall,” which bodes well given the lack of early pace here.


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Main Dangers

Rising Power (IRE) – Trainer: Charlie Appleby | Jockey: William Buick | Adjusted TFR: 92 (debut)
This Godolphin colt is a €600,000 yearling with an eye-catching pedigree – closely related to sharp 5f types including the smart Roulston Scar. Appleby has trained two of the last ten winners of this race and his debutants at this track have a high strike rate. That said, he’s unraced, and with no strong pace forecasted, experience could be key. Market strength would enhance confidence.

French Affair (IRE) – Trainer: Richard Hannon | Jockey: Sean Levey | Adjusted TFR: 79 (debut)
Another debutant from a stable with a superb record in this race (three wins in the past ten runnings). French Affair is a £135,000 first foal out of a half-sister to Group 2 winner Space Traveller, and is bred to be precocious. Hannon often has his juveniles ready early, so despite the below-average adjusted debut rating, the pedigree and yard’s profile make her one to note.


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Others of Note

Sovereign Spell (IRE) – Trainer: Raphael Freire | Jockey: David Egan | Adjusted TFR: 75
First foal of a useful dam who stayed further. Connections may be hoping for longer trips in time, but he has a fair level of ability. Would need a good deal of improvement to win here, but worth monitoring in the market. The 75 figure suggests midfield at best unless he finds a chunk of improvement.

Alvin (IRE) – Trainer: George Scott | Jockey: Callum Shepherd | Adjusted TFR: Unrated
Yet to run and from a smart family that includes Phoenix Stakes winner Lucky Vega. However, George Scott is not known for debut 2yo winners at this level, and with no run since early spring, market support would be key.

Alkuwarrior (IRE) – Trainer: Des Donovan | Jockey: Hollie Doyle | Adjusted TFR: 73
A previous winner, having made all to score narrowly at Yarmouth 12 days ago. However, the form hasn’t worked out strongly, and he carries a 7lb penalty here. Likely to try and lead again, which could help set a pace for closers, but he’s vulnerable to classier sorts.


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Trainer Trends (Past 10 Runnings):

Richard Hannon – 3 winners (saddles French Affair)

Charlie Appleby – 2 winners (saddles Rising Power)



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Verdict

Moonfall brings by far the best form and has the added benefit of experience at the track, marking him out as the one to beat. Rising Power looks a big threat on paper for a yard with a strong record in the race, though the lack of a recent run means market strength would be a positive sign. French Affair, from another leading yard, could be one to note as the paddock and betting speak nearer the off. With fewer than eight runners, each-way betting angles are limited, but those looking beyond the favourite might lean on stable trends for a hint.