This looks a competitive 0–110 handicap over two miles where race fitness, pace setup and trainer form could all play key roles. The weak pace forecast implies tactical positioning may prove decisive, favouring those who can dominate or travel prominently. Timeform ratings suggest a few clear contenders, but recent trends and profile flags also highlight others who may be underestimated.


—

Strongest Contenders

GOWER PRINCE (Timeform Adjusted Rating: 119)
A front-runner with a tendency to race freely, he was still ahead when falling at the last at Chepstow a fortnight ago. That was his first start back for Matt Sheppard, who has a good record with single chase runners on the card – a noted Smart Stat showing £19.67 profit to £1 level stakes. The return to a small field and forecast steady gallop are big positives, though caution is advised following that fall. Timeform notes that he usually wears a hood and goes well on good-to-firm, but he’ll need to stay calm in the early stages. One to watch closely in the betting for signs of confidence.

JET OF DREAMS (TFR: 114)
Warren Greatrex’s charge has made excellent progress this season, winning three times including a tidy success last time at Chepstow. He has shown he can travel, jump fluently and finish his races well. Greatrex’s yard is in good nick (23% summer strike rate), and the horse has had a breathing operation in the past – something that has appeared to help his consistency. The slight concern here is that he typically benefits from a strong pace, and might not get that set-up today.

BASELINE (TFR: 116)
A solid chasing debut at Wetherby in March confirmed that he may be better over fences than hurdles, finishing a staying-on second after racing a little awkwardly. The Hobbs & White team are in decent form, and this 7yo still has room to improve. He has worn a hood in recent starts to settle better, and any move in the market would be worth noting as this is just his second handicap run.


—

Main Dangers

LIVELY CITIZEN (TFR: 117)
This 10yo is clearly well treated on old form and showed there’s still spark left when winning a handicap chase at Ayr in January. However, he was beaten 11¾ lengths in a much deeper race at Cheltenham last time and now returns to fences. He acts on heavy ground and has cheekpieces tried in the past. The concern is the weight burden of 12-2, which could leave him vulnerable against younger legs.

LA QUARITE (No current TFR – interesting profile)
Now with Mickey Bowen, this free-going 5yo showed promise when second in a Musselburgh maiden hurdle last time, having gone clear early before fading. She’s unexposed and wears a hood, tongue tie, and cheekpieces – a full headgear switch. Bowen has a strong record at this track and Sean Bowen rides. She could easily lead early, but how she settles and handles fences in a race with more experienced rivals is an unknown. Market strength or weakness should be informative.


—

Interesting Outsiders

IMPERIAL MEASURE (No recent TFR – 432 days off)
Absent since March 2023, but showed ability in novice hurdles and is now sent chasing off a low mark of 88 for in-form Evan Williams. His profile includes a win at Newton Abbot and some good placed efforts, though he has bled previously. With Adam Wedge booked and stamina proven, he’s one to keep a watching brief on unless the market speaks loudly in his favour.

LERMOOS LEGEND *(TFR: 116?)
Won here by 11 lengths in November, but was pulled up last time after a collision with a rival. He’s a course winner with form over longer trips, but his record fresh is mixed and he’s now 10 years old. The “?” on his Timeform rating suggests some uncertainty in current ability.


—

Race Trends & Other Notes

Last two winners were 8-year-olds carrying 10-10 or 11-12, priced at 9/2 and 11/2 respectively.

Recent renewals have gone to prominent racers rather than deep closers.

Watch the market for IMPERIAL MEASURE and ISOCREATE, both returning from long breaks (432 and 87 days respectively). Support would be significant.



—

Summary

GOWER PRINCE looks ideally placed from a tactical point of view and was in the process of running a big race before falling last time. JET OF DREAMS continues to progress and is a danger to all if the pace is stronger than forecast. BASELINE appeals as an improver and is unexposed over fences. LA QUARITE is an intriguing outsider and could go well if settling better. Keep an eye on the market for IMPERIAL MEASURE and ISOCREATE, both returning from breaks.