A key trial for the Derby, the Group 3 Chester Vase has produced top-level performers including Ruler Of The World, Sir Dragonet and Changingoftheguard. The race often favours horses from powerful yards, with Aidan O’Brien notably winning six of the past ten renewals.


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Strongest Contenders

LAMBOURN (IRE) – TFR 116 | Aidan O’Brien | Ryan Moore
Resumed with a solid staying-on second in the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown behind stablemate Delacroix, shaping like a colt who would relish this longer trip. His juvenile wins included a minor event and a Listed race, and he now wears first-time blinkers. A strong pace will suit, and he represents a trainer with a formidable recent record in this race. A leading player, though the market may guide on whether further improvement is expected.

SQUARE D’ALBONI (FR) – TFR 119p | Ralph Beckett | Hector Crouch
Unbeaten in three starts and ended last season with an emphatic Listed win at Chantilly, making all and quickening clear in style. Timeform noted he was “unquestioned” that day, and his style suggests he may go forward again here. One of two for Ralph Beckett, who is in flying form. Has the best adjusted rating and looks a significant player despite facing pace pressure this time.


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Main Dangers

PINHOLE – TFR 108p | Ralph Beckett | Rossa Ryan
Brother to smart filly Quadrilateral and the useful stayer Cadogan Place, this colt looked well above average when winning with authority at Southwell. Still unexposed and open to significant improvement on turf, particularly at this trip. Timeform rated his latest effort as “plenty in hand,” and he could surprise a few with the right setup. One to monitor in the betting, particularly on this return from a 144-day break.

FURTHUR (IRE) – TFR 104p | Andrew Balding | Jason Watson
Improved to win a maiden at Newbury with something to spare, staying on strongly. Comes from a family that tends to improve with age and distance. Balding has a strong 21% strike rate at Chester since 2021, and this colt is another with more to offer over this trip. Should benefit from the pace setup.


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Interesting Outsiders

LAZY GRIFF (GER) – TFR 118 | Charlie Johnston | Joe Fanning
Made all to land the Group 3 Prix de Condé at Chantilly last autumn and has shown versatility regarding ground conditions. Potential front-runner and already proven at Listed level, but comes here off a 228-day absence. Watch the market for confidence behind his chances after such a layoff.

THRICE (IRE) – TFR 107 | Aidan O’Brien | William Buick
Impressive maiden winner last year but disappointed in the Eyrefield Stakes when hanging right and beaten 3¾ lengths. Wearing first-time blinkers now and represents top connections, but not seen for 200 days. A market move either way could be significant.


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Unexposed or Unlikely

CONVERGENT (IRE) – TFR 108p | Karl Burke | Sam James
Improving type who has won both starts at Redcar this season in convincing fashion. This is a big step up in class, but he’s done nothing wrong and is bred to stay. Entitled to a shot at this level and could run well without quite being up to the very top level.

FAIRE LA NOUBA (IRE) – TFR ? | John F. O’Neill | Dougie Costello
Massive outsider who has shown little in maidens and nurseries. Beaten long way in all three starts and hard to see him landing a blow at this level.


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Trends & Trainer Notes

Aidan O’Brien has won 6 of the last 10 Chester Vase renewals, represented here by Lambourn and Thrice.

Runners with recent form (within 60 days) have had a much stronger strike rate in recent renewals. Half the field are returning from layoffs of over 144 days — keep an eye on market confidence for these.

Recent winners often come from tactically adaptable horses – those able to quicken off a good gallop or sit close up when the pace slackens.



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Summary

This year’s Chester Vase looks a high-quality renewal. Lambourn is a strong contender for Aidan O’Brien with solid Group form and stamina now unlocked, while Square d’Alboni brings a progressive profile and the highest rating into the race. Both could well be Group 1 bound. Pinhole and Furthur are the most interesting improvers from the home team, and Lazy Griff could be dangerous if fit enough to reproduce his French form.

The market may tell the story with several returning from breaks — particularly Lazy Griff, Pinhole, and Thrice.