This mares’ handicap hurdle brings together a small but varied field, featuring a mix of exposed campaigners, lightly raced improvers, and a couple returning from layoffs. With a very weak pace forecast, positioning could prove decisive over this sharp right-handed track.


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Key Contenders

OF COURSE YOU CAN (Timeform adjusted 122)
Neil Mulholland’s mare has had wind surgery and wears a tongue tie again. She’s a fair performer on her day and shaped well when second at Ludlow in December in a race that has worked out. Her Cheltenham effort behind Greyval can be forgiven, given she was 3lb out of the handicap and possibly not ideally placed. She’s expected to race prominently, which is a major plus in a race where few look likely to force the pace.

ILE DE JERSEY (124)
Represents the in-form Nicky Henderson team (25% summer strike rate) and shaped as if the run was needed when mid-division behind Greyval at Cheltenham on return from a long absence. A fairly useful hurdler at best and one with winning chase form, she’s better suited by this drop in class and the return to a slightly longer trip. Likely to be much sharper now. Market strength would be a positive.


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Main Dangers

MERMAIDS CAVE (121)
A five-time winner already this season, including over this sort of trip at Fakenham. She was well below form at Cheltenham, finishing behind both Ile de Jersey and Of Course You Can, but that was off a break and she now wears first-time headgear, which could help her travel more sweetly. James Owen has a 22% strike rate over this trip bracket. Watch the market for confidence on her reappearance.

TAXUS BACCATA (117+)
A solid each-way performer this spring over fences, including a 10-length novice win at Plumpton and a runner-up finish at Fakenham last time. She’s unexposed over hurdles and could run well if allowed her own way in front. Her trainer Matt Crawley is still seeking a breakthrough winner in this race, but she has the profile of a possible improver back over smaller obstacles.


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Interesting Outsider

CALLIN BATON ROUGE (121)
Progressed nicely through the autumn with a hat-trick over hurdles after joining the Pogson yard, though she tailed off in a novice event at Cheltenham in December and fell late on chase debut. Off 174 days, but not dismissed lightly on old form. Likely to be dropped in and may need the run, so any market support would be notable.


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Others

WALK OF NO SHAME (123) – Below form on her last two starts and unconvincing on chasing debut. More needed.

MASKED DANCE (??) – Poor form this spring and the Mel Rowley yard is currently cold. Easy to overlook unless attracting late support.



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Trends & Trainer Notes

No past winners of this specific race are listed, though Nicky Henderson boasts a strong overall record with mares in summer handicap hurdles.

Breathing operations feature prominently, with at least three runners having undergone one recently – often a positive for a bounce-back.

Sharp right-handed tracks tend to suit runners with tactical speed – favouring Of Course You Can, Taxus Baccata, and Ile De Jersey.



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Verdict

OF COURSE YOU CAN makes most appeal given her track suitability and tactical pace in a weakly-run race. ILE DE JERSEY is a danger if fitter for Cheltenham and could be the class act on paper. MERMAIDS CAVE has something to prove after a break but can’t be dismissed, while TAXUS BACCATA may outrun her odds if allowed to dictate.

Market moves for any of the returning types—especially Callin Baton Rouge—should be respected.