Strongest Contenders (based on Timeform adjusted ratings, form, and trainer trends):

LONG DRAW (TFR 144) – Winner of two of last three starts including latest Cheltenham handicap where he beat Harbour Lake convincingly. Timeform notes his chasing potential and steady progress profile. He has been raised to OR 134 but remains unexposed at staying trips. Sean Bowen has a strong 47% strike rate on hurdling favourites – a notable stat.

THANK YOU MA’AM (TFR 145) – Continues to run well and is 7lb better off with Tiny Tetley for a 4¼L defeat here last time. Progressive profile and looks ideally suited by this test under Olive Nicholls. Trainer Georgina Nicholls has a £41.36 level stakes profit when sending a sole hurdles runner to the track.

TINY TETLEY (TFR 142) – In excellent form having won three of last four starts, including over course and distance 21 days ago. He’s gone up again in the weights, but his form is strong and he’s thriving for Hobbs & Johnson White (yard in red-hot form).

HARBOUR LAKE (TFR 145) – Solid and reliable, placed in this race last year and now 2lbs higher. Ran well when second to Long Draw at Cheltenham, and although often held back at this level, he remains a consistent type with definite place claims again.


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Main Dangers / Solid Each-Way Angles:

MOSTLY SUNNY (TFR 146) – Just touched off at Sandown last time having conceded first run. Handles better ground well and has been consistent. Shapes like the step up in trip could suit. One of the most interesting closers in the race.

PATRIOTIK (TFR 145) – On the upgrade. Third at Uttoxeter in a strong staying handicap last time behind Red Risk. Has stamina and a likeable profile. A potential improver at the trip.

ZAIN NIGHTS (TFR 145) – Won this race last year off 7lbs lower. Below par latest but capable of bouncing back at a track he’s won twice at. Worth watching in the market.


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Interesting Outsiders / Profiles / Market Watchers:

MY BOBBY DAZZLER (TFR 148) – Runner-up in this last year from a higher mark (121 today vs 125 then) and now had a second wind op. Wasn’t disgraced behind Long Draw at Cheltenham. If allowed an uncontested lead, he could go well at a big price. Trainer form a concern though (cold patch).

PORTER IN THE PARK (TFR 144) – Improved to win at Ludlow last time. Has form over further, and with Harry Cobden booked, might be underestimated if continuing to progress.

ESCAPOLOGIST (TFR 145) – Lightly raced and didn’t shape that badly behind Mostly Sunny last time. Trainer James Owen has a 21% strike rate with staying hurdlers.


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Key Trends (past renewals):

3 of last 5 winners carried 10-10 or less.

Winners in 2022 (Romeo Brown) and 2023 (Willaston) were both double-figure SPs (20/1 and 14/1).

Last 3 winners aged 5 or 6.

Zain Nights won this last year off 125 and returns off 132.

Horses with proven course form and stamina have fared well.



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Summary / Value View:

Top Two (on profile + adjusted TFR):

Long Draw – progressive and hard to fault, but now on a career-high mark.

Thank You Ma’am – gets 7lb swing with Tiny Tetley and stays well; tactical angle from the front could be decisive.


Each-Way Angles (13 runners):

Mostly Sunny – solid recent effort, looks unexposed over trip.

Patriotik – improving stayer with a strong placing behind Red Risk.

My Bobby Dazzler – last year’s runner-up, now lower in the weights and could lead again.