Race Conditions:

• Class: Group 3
• Distance: 1m2f
• Age: 3yo only
• Surface: Turf
• Going: Good to Firm (Good in places)
• Field Size: 5 runners
• Pace Forecast: Weak
• Draw Bias: Not relevant for this small field over a middle distance

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Pace / Tactical Overview

Pace looks weak on paper, with Delacroix expected to lead or race prominently as in the Ballysax. With no clear rival likely to challenge early, a slow gallop and sprint finish could develop. That scenario would suit tactical speed and positioning.

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Contender Analysis

1. DELACROIX (IRE)

• Trainer: Aidan O’Brien | Jockey: W. M. Lordan
• Timeform Adjusted Rating: 125p
• Form: 21212-1
• Notes: Proven C&D winner (Ballysax), versatile in ground, confirmed stamina at 10f, and appears straightforward tactically. Still open to progress and profiles like previous O’Brien winners of this trial (e.g., Stone Age, Bolshoi Ballet).
• Trainer Record: O’Brien has won 6 of the last 10 editions.
• Mark: 9/10

2. TENNESSEE STUD (IRE)

• Trainer: Joseph P. O’Brien | Jockey: D. B. McMonagle
• Timeform Adjusted Rating: 118p
• Form: 3121- (Last seen Oct 2024)
• Notes: Won Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud over 1¼m last backend; suited by step up in trip. Off 196 days and returning against race-fit rivals. Clearly has the class, but market strength may indicate readiness.
• Mark: 8/10

3. ACAPULCO BAY (IRE)

• Trainer: Aidan O’Brien | Jockey: W. J. Lee
• Timeform Adjusted Rating: 107p
• Form: 21-2
• Notes: By Dubawi out of a Galileo mare, shaped encouragingly in a Naas minor event (2nd to Trinity College). First try at this trip and bred to stay. Beaten by Delacroix on debut but is likely to come forward again.
• Mark: 7/10

4. PURVIEW

• Trainer: D. K. Weld | Jockey: C. D. Hayes
• Timeform Adjusted Rating: 95p
• Form: 1- (170 days off)
• Notes: Debut winner at Dundalk (AW); related to middle-distance performers and will stay 10f+. Could improve significantly but has a fair bit to find on the book. Absence of 170 days—market may tell the tale.
• Mark: 6/10

5. ROCK OF CASHEL (IRE)

• Trainer: Aidan O’Brien | Jockey: G. M. Ryan
• Timeform Adjusted Rating: 106
• Form: 81465-6
• Notes: Only raced over 7f; steps up sharply in trip. Sixth in the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial (7f). On breeding (out of Best in the World, dam of Snowfall), could stay, but doesn’t yet shape like a Group winner at this trip.
• Mark: 5/10

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Trends and Trainer Insights

• Aidan O’Brien has dominated this race, winning 6 of the last 10. His winners typically have strong 2yo form and a win at 1¼m or further before this race.
• Group 1 winners like Stone Age and Bolshoi Ballet used this as a stepping stone to Derby trials or the Derby itself.
• Market support is notable for runners returning from layoffs, particularly Tennessee Stud (196 days) and Purview (170 days).
• Race usually favours those racing prominently, especially with no guaranteed pace on.

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Verdict Summary and Ratings Table

Horse	TF Rating	Trainer	Layoff (Days)	Mark (/10)	Comments
Delacroix	125p	Aidan O’Brien	42	9	Ballysax winner, top rating, tactical edge
Tennessee Stud	118p	Joseph O’Brien	196	8	Group 1 winner, but fitness is a question
Acapulco Bay	107p	Aidan O’Brien	49	7	Unexposed, nicely bred, likely improver
Purview	95p	D. K. Weld	170	6	Promising debut, needs to step up markedly
Rock of Cashel	106	Aidan O’Brien	42	5	Not shown enough, questionable at the trip

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Market Watch Advice

• Keep an eye on the betting for Tennessee Stud and Purview, both off 90+ days.
• Any market strength behind Purview would be significant given D. K. Weld’s patient style.
• A drift on Tennessee Stud would raise concern over readiness, especially against fit rivals.