Pace Forecast: Weak
Pace/Draw Angle: Prominent racers often do well in this race type at Killarney. The likely lack of a strong pace could disadvantage closers such as Donkey Years, while runners like Happy Jacky and Paggane may benefit from racing prominently.

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Strongest Contenders

HAPPY JACKY (11yo, R. A. Doyle) – TFR: 157 – Mark: 8.5/10
Returned from a 6-month break to win a 13-runner maiden chase impressively at Kilbeggan. Smart handicap hurdler who now looks to be hitting form over fences. Has shown form on both soft and good ground and is tactically suited to this setup, typically racing prominently. Trainer Mark Fahey has him in peak condition and the switch back to handicap company off a workable mark is notable.

PAGGANE (6yo, P. Townend) – TFR: 151 – Mark: 8/10
Lightly raced mare with progressive chase form, placing in a Listed mares’ event at Perth last time. Won at Clonmel in February and has a solid attitude. Trained by Willie Mullins, who has taken 2 of the last 3 renewals of this race. Races prominently, which will help in this scenario. Market support would enhance confidence, though she has a profile for trading short and getting overhauled late.

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Main Dangers

STEALTHY TOM (10yo, S. D. Torrens) – TFR: 153 – Mark: 7.5/10
Stays extreme distances and was running well in cross-country company before falling in the La Touche Cup. Trained by Enda Bolger, who has won this race three times in the last eight years. He’s tactically versatile and capable if jumping fluently, though the stable’s form is currently underwhelming.

QUEST WITH SPEED (8yo, P. Hanlon) – TFR: 148 – Mark: 7/10
Won a 3¼m handicap at Down Royal last week, stepping back up in trip. He stays well, handles a sound surface, and is in good form. The 7lb claimer keeps the ride. A quick turnaround is a slight concern, but the improvement in blinkers is encouraging. Profile suggests there may still be a bit of upside.

HARTUR D’ARC (8yo, K. Donoghue) – TFR: 152 – Mark: 6.5/10
Placed second in the Leinster National behind Bushmans Pass and remains on a competitive mark. Didn’t fire last time but that came in deeper company. Trainer Gavin Cromwell has done well in staying handicaps and the reapplication of a hood may help. Suited by distance and ground.

DONKEY YEARS (11yo, C. P. McNamara) – TFR: 152 – Mark: 6.5/10
Strong stayer with placed efforts in deep company last year. However, pulled up on seasonal return and wouldn’t be suited if the race develops into a sprint finish off a slow pace. May improve for the run but needs to bounce back. Trainer Eric McNamara has done well in veteran-type staying contests.

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Interesting Outsiders

CADATHARLA (7yo, G. Brouder) – TFR: 146+ – Mark: 6/10
Fairly useful chaser who unseated early at Punchestown. Was lightly raced over fences last term and could be open to improvement if finding rhythm. One to watch for market support. Headgear could be considered if he fails to settle early.

BRAZIL (7yo, M. P. Walsh) – TFR: 143+ – Mark: 6/10
Talented juvenile hurdler in his early days, now trying to find his way in staying handicap chases. Travelled well in the Ulster National before fading. Might improve again with fitness. One of the few in this field with Group-class back form; the ground and trip should suit. A potential plot horse if support comes.

PANDA BOY (9yo, J. P. Shinnick) – TFR: 149 – Mark: 6/10
Strong third in the Leinster National prior to unseating in the Irish Grand National. Continues to run in hot handicaps and remains winless over fences (0/7). Ground and trip suit, but can find little off the bridle. Trainer Martin Brassil’s only chase runner on the card – note his strong stats with such runners.

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Other Runners (Layoffs 90+ Days – Market Check Needed)

• GOLD BULLION (113 days, TFR: 148, Mark: 5/10): Has changed yards and run poorly on last few starts.
• DONKEY YEARS (135 days), HASCOEUR CLERMONT (21), THE GRADUAL SLOPE (8), MOONOVERCLOON (20), BRAZIL (42): All returning from layoffs and could need the run.
• LIGHTKEEPER (11, TFR: 149): Pulled up last time, but may come on for recent run. Tends to wear headgear.
• GAELIC ARC: Now unreliable. Has bled previously and best watched.
• THE GRADUAL SLOPE: Has ability but inconsistent. Pulled up in the past and hard to rely on.

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Trends and Trainer Angles

• W. P. Mullins (Paggane): Won this race in 2022 and 2023.
• Enda Bolger (Stealthy Tom): 3 wins in the last 8 renewals.
• Martin Brassil (Panda Boy): Profitable to follow when sending only one chase runner on the card.
• Previous winners have included older horses (aged 8–11) and those carrying 10-4 to 11-8.

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Summary Ratings (out of 10 – based on Timeform rating, profile, suitability, trends, trainer, and recent run)

Horse	TFR	Mark
Happy Jacky	157	8.5
Paggane	151	8
Stealthy Tom	153	7.5
Quest With Speed	148	7
Hartur D’Arc	152	6.5
Donkey Years	152	6.5
Cadatharla	146+	6
Brazil	143+	6
Panda Boy	149	6

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Conclusion

Top Contender: Happy Jacky – on a roll and well placed tactically
Main Danger: Paggane – consistent, but may trade short without finishing
Value Outsider: Brazil – former classy hurdler, interesting now going over extreme trips

Each-way betting is possible with 15 runners. Monitor the market closely for horses returning from long layoffs (Gold Bullion, Brazil, Panda Boy, Donkey Years), as support or drift may signal intent.