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Race Conditions

• Race Type: Fillies’ Novice Stakes (Class 3)
• Eligibility: 3yo and up
• Distance: 7 furlongs and 14 yards
• Surface: Tapeta
• Going: Standard
• Field Size: 8 declared runners
• Pace Forecast: Weak (may not suit hold-up types)
• Draw Bias: No significant bias on the round 7f track at Newcastle. Runners need position rather than a draw edge.

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Pace & Draw Analysis

A slow early pace is expected, which is a concern for fillies who need a strong tempo to settle or finish off well. Lady Sonata is one noted by Timeform as likely to be inconvenienced by the anticipated steady gallop, whereas Orange Sky is expected to be suited by the tactical nature.

Draws are unlikely to influence the outcome materially here. With a weak overall gallop projected, forward-going types or those who can race handy without being keen may be best placed.

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Leading Contenders

ORANGE SKY (IRE)

• Trainer: George Boughey | Jockey: Billy Loughnane
• Timeform Rating: 75p
• Draw: 6 | Days Off: 229
• Pedigree: No Nay Never x Sea The Stars mare
• Summary: Built on debut when winning over C&D in November, beating Titian Blue comfortably. Strong middle-distance pedigree and Timeform “p” symbol indicates more to come.
• Trainer Record: 21% strike rate at Newcastle since 2021.
• Layoff: Absent 229 days, but Boughey’s record suggests readiness.
• Rating: 9/10
• Note: Market support would reinforce confidence on return.

LORNA B (IRE)

• Trainer: Seb Spencer | Jockey: Dale Swift
• Timeform Rating: 69p
• Draw: 7 | Days Off: 50
• Summary: Stepped up markedly on debut to win CD maiden in March at 28/1. That was a weak race, but she’s lightly raced and well bred.
• Pedigree: Shaman x Daaher mare, stamina on dam side.
• Rating: 7.5/10
• Note: Carries penalty and will need another step forward. Market should indicate if further progress is expected.

SHWAIMAH

• Trainer: James Horton | Jockey: Adam Farragher
• Timeform Rating: 72
• Draw: 5 | Days Off: 35
• Summary: Promising debut second at Newcastle but well beaten next time at Southwell. Potential excuses and returns to favoured venue.
• Pedigree: Siyouni x Rawdaa (Teofilo), suggesting class and 7f–1m suitability.
• Rating: 7/10
• Note: Each-way claims if bouncing back. Watch for strength in the market.

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Other Runners & Outsiders

HELLO GOODBYE (IRE)

• Trainer: Ed Dunlop | Jockey: Callum Shepherd
• Timeform Rating: 56 (est.)
• Summary: Green on debut, but well-bred and has scope. Half-sister to a 2yo winner.
• Rating: 6/10
• Note: Minor place potential with improvement.

SATYRESS

• Trainer: Harriet Bethell | Jockey: Cam Hardie
• Timeform Rating: 61
• Summary: Low-key form to date, but Bethell has a profitable record with single runners at meetings and over 7f–10f trips (21% strike rate).
• Rating: 6/10
• Note: Outsider to monitor given trainer trends.

FALLONS FIRST (IRE)

• Trainer: K. R. Burke | Jockey: Jack Nicholls (7)
• Timeform Rating: N/A
• Summary: Trainer in excellent current form but this filly has finished tailed off twice.
• Rating: 4/10
• Note: Best watched unless the market speaks loudly.

LADY SONATA

• Trainer: Ivan Furtado | Jockey: Tom Eaves
• Timeform Rating: 45
• Summary: Not much encouragement so far, and weak pace a further concern.
• Rating: 4/10
• Note: Opposable under these conditions.

SOHO SQUARE

• Trainer: James Fanshawe | Jockey: Daniel Muscutt
• Timeform Rating: 51
• Summary: Well beaten last time and off for 235 days. Pedigree suggests ability but needs to show it on track.
• Rating: 4.5/10
• Note: Layoff of 90+ days makes market moves important.

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Significant Trends

• No past winners of this specific race on record.
• Trainers to note: George Boughey (21% at Newcastle), Harriet Bethell (profitable at single-runner meetings).
• Timeform “p” symbol flags Orange Sky and Lorna B as improving types.
• Market moves are crucial for fillies off 90+ day breaks (Orange Sky, Soho Square).

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Conclusion

This is a modest Class 3 contest with two standout fillies in Orange Sky and Lorna B, both penalised but progressive. Orange Sky sets the standard on Timeform figures and visual impression and has the strongest profile on form, pedigree, and trainer stats. Shwaimah is a danger if returning to her debut level, while Hello Goodbye and Satyress are worth noting as dark horses, particularly if the market speaks in their favour.

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Each-Way Angle (8 runners):

• Shwaimah (72) – solid Newcastle debut and could place if rebounding.