Pace Forecast: Very Weak – Those racing handily could gain a tactical advantage. Notably, Midnight Jewel is expected to race prominently, which is favourable in this setup.


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Leading Contenders:

1. Abingworth (TFR 120x)
Rated 109 and arriving off two wins, this 7yo has improved since cheekpieces were applied. Travelled smoothly and jumped soundly in latest wins at Wincanton and Warwick, suggesting he’s now fulfilling earlier promise. Effective over the trip and handles varying ground.
Trainer Josh Moore has a respectable strike rate with staying chasers and this horse appears to be thriving late in the season.
Rating: 8.5/10

2. God’s Own Getaway (TFR 118+)
Lightly-raced 7yo who won earlier in the season and ran well behind Abingworth last time. Wears cheekpieces and tongue tie. Tends to be held up, which is a slight concern with the predicted slow pace.
Still, trainer Dan Skelton has a 22% strike rate in summer and this horse is one of the few open to more progress.
Rating: 8/10

3. Full Monty (TFR –)
Won a maiden hurdle last July and ran to fair levels afterwards. Has scope for improvement now going chasing and Fergal O’Brien (23% strike rate with handicap chase debutants) is a positive for this type. Fitness could be a query after 205 days off.
Rating: 7/10 – Watch the market closely.

4. Midnight Jewel (TFR 117)
Front-running type and one of the few here suited by the predicted pace setup. Won a modest Fontwell handicap in September but was soundly beaten in three subsequent runs. Down in the weights and now fitter after a recent comeback run over hurdles.
Rating: 7/10 – Each-way chance given tactical position and course form.

5. Okavango Delta (TFR 117)
Has won twice over fences at Musselburgh but disappointed last time at Doncaster. Proven stayer, but all recent form has come on softer ground and he’s been off 109 days. Best watched unless the market speaks in his favour.
Rating: 6.5/10


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Main Dangers & Interesting Outsiders:

6. Scene One (TFR 116?)
Twice runner-up over fences in December but form tailed off markedly since. Would need to bounce back from two poor runs. Likely better over further.
Rating: 5.5/10

7. Byzantine Empire (TFR ?) – 172-day layoff
Fairly useful at one time but was pulled up on latest chase start. Needs a revival. First run since breathing op and has changed yard.
Rating: 5/10 – Market should reveal intent.

8. Winged Isle (TFR ?) – 291-day layoff
Pulled up on only start last season and not seen since. Has form from years ago but is very risky.
Rating: 4.5/10

9. Mary’s Fortune (TFR 108)
Former French performer; no impact in two starts for current yard. More likely needed in lower grade.
Rating: 4/10

10. Uncle Arthur (TFR ?) – 206-day layoff
Very modest hurdler/chaser, out of form for over a year. Hard to make a case.
Rating: 3/10


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TRENDS & NOTES:

No clear historical trends as this race does not have a well-established past.

The slow pace forecast is significant: front-runners and those who race handily will be advantaged.

Pay attention to market support for Full Monty, Byzantine Empire, and Winged Isle — all returning from 90+ day layoffs.

Skelton and O’Brien are noted summer performers and worth tracking for market strength.



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Each-Way Angles (10 runners):

Midnight Jewel – Could get an easy lead.

Full Monty – If ready, could surprise on chase debut.



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Tissue Estimate (100% book):

Abingworth – 5/2

God’s Own Getaway – 4/1

Full Monty – 11/2

Okavango Delta – 13/2

Midnight Jewel – 8/1

Scene One – 10/1

Byzantine Empire – 16/1

Mary’s Fortune – 20/1

Winged Isle – 22/1

Uncle Arthur – 66/1