Pace & Draw Analysis

This looks to be a strongly run 5f with early pace likely from Ingleby Archie, Maris Angel and Miss Brazen. Historically at Beverley, a strong pace over this trip often benefits those drawn low to middle and able to sit just off the leaders. High draws tend to be a disadvantage here in these conditions, especially in a burn-up. Hold-up types with finishing speed and a low/mid draw can be favoured.


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Strongest Contenders

KELDEO (TFR 86) – 8/10
A winner at Pontefract last month and denied clear sailing late when fourth back here at Beverley. Clearly in top form and a course winner. Solid adjusted rating, low draw, and proven in big fields. Prominent style suits today’s likely setup. Trainer Ollie Pears is 2-9 at the track this year.

FIERCE (TFR 88) – 8/10
Trainer Paul Midgley has won this race three times in the past decade. Fierce shaped with encouragement at Beverley last time from off the pace in a race favouring those closer to the speed. A small field on that day, so today’s tempo may suit better. Carries the highest Timeform rating here and has been consistent since changing yards.

OPAL STORM (TFR 86) – 8/10
Back to form with a strong-finishing second at Doncaster, and was a course winner last summer. Suited by a strong gallop, and a low draw puts her in a good spot to track the speed. Comes from off the pace. One of the more interesting each-way angles, given the return to this course and a competitive mark.


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Main Dangers

INGLEBY ARCHIE (TFR 85) – 7/10
Has tactical speed and is a dual 2024 winner. Raced too freely at Pontefract last time but had run well on reappearance before that. Likely to press for the lead. Trainer Adrian Nicholls is 0-12 in the last 30 days, so stable form is a small concern.

CRAFTY SPIRIT (TFR 85) – 7/10
Has placed efforts off similar marks and should be spot on after a break. Returns from 217 days off, so market support would be significant. Usually races prominently and is well berthed in stall 3. First run for the yard in 2025; fresh angle could be notable.


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Interesting Outsiders

GANESHA (TFR 84) – 6/10
Patchy form and didn’t fire last time when hanging. That said, won at Newcastle in March and has hinted at ability. Hard to rule out if bouncing back, though might need more ease in the ground ideally.

MISS BRAZEN (TFR 87) – 6/10
Course winner but returns from 215 days off and reportedly bled when last seen. Profile is good at this venue, and she’s been placed multiple times here, but best watched for signs of support given the layoff and health flag.

MIDNIGHT LIR (TFR 85) – 6/10
Behind Keldeo last time out and only mid-division. Yet to get going this term but has some solid efforts in the book from last year and is another who could benefit from pace collapse. Trainer Michael Dods has shown a profit to level stakes with single runners at meetings.

MARIS ANGEL (TFR 84+) – 6/10
Returns from 122 days off. Tends to race prominently, and that’s a risk from stall 1 if pressured early. Comes here after a flat run on the all-weather and is another who may need the run unless the market speaks positively.


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Significant Trends & Notes

Paul Midgley has 3 wins in the last 10 years in this race (saddles Fierce).

Low draws have fared better in big fields over 5f at Beverley, particularly when pace is strong.

Watch for market moves on horses returning from layoffs: Crafty Spirit, Miss Brazen, and Maris Angel have been off 90+ days.



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Ratings (out of 10)

Horse TFR Score

Keldeo 86 8/10
Fierce 88 8/10
Opal Storm 86 8/10
Ingleby Archie 85 7/10
Crafty Spirit 85 7/10
Ganesha 84 6/10
Midnight Lir 85 6/10
Miss Brazen 87 6/10
Maris Angel 84+ 6/10



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Tissue Estimate (Guide Only)

Keldeo – 7/2

Fierce – 4/1

Opal Storm – 9/2

Ingleby Archie – 13/2

Crafty Spirit – 15/2

Midnight Lir – 10/1

Maris Angel – 12/1

Miss Brazen – 14/1

Ganesha – 14/1



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Advice:
Plenty of pace and favourable draw positions suggest Opal Storm and Keldeo are solid, while Fierce has upside if the strong gallop plays into his hold-up style. Crafty Spirit is interesting back from a break but should be monitored in the market, along with Miss Brazen and Maris Angel, who both return from layoffs of 90+ days.