Race Conditions: For mares aged 4yo+, novice hurdlers, race worth £4,193 to the winner. The going is described as Good, and the field contains 8 runners, allowing for each-way terms to apply.


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Pace & Tactics:

Timeform notes a Very Weak pace forecast, which could favour those who race handily or possess a turn of foot.
Specific pace hint highlights Jena D’Oudairies as unlikely to be inconvenienced by a muddling pace – she’s tactically versatile and handled better races from off it.


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Strongest Contenders:

1. JENA D’OUDAIRIES (FR) – TFR 121
Paul Nicholls | J: Harry Cobden

Bumper winner; consistent profile in mares’ novice events.

Won easily at Chepstow in March before finishing midfield in the Cheltenham mares’ final (5th/16).

Faces a class drop and gets to run under a penalty.

Cheekpieces retained; profile and TFR mark her as the standout.

Smart Stat: Cobden has a 47% strike rate on hurdling favourites.


Rating: 9.5/10
(Only slight knock: beaten when odds-on previously, and carries a penalty.)

5. HARD DEALT (IRE) – TFR 115
Henry Daly | J: David Bass

Point winner who shaped nicely when a close second at Chepstow last time over 2m.

Pedigree and performance suggest today’s 2½m trip will suit better.

Progressive type with scope for improvement; danger if she settles.


Rating: 8.5/10


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Main Dangers and Each-Way Angles:

8. TOP TIER GOSSIP
Dan Skelton | J: Harry Skelton

Lightly raced bumper filly with promise at Stratford.

Related to Midnight River (a 25f winner).

No hurdles experience but the trainer is in strong spring/summer form (20% strike rate in this period).

Trip likely to suit, and market strength would be significant.


Rating: 7/10 (Could outrun odds if sharp enough after 172 days off – watch the market.)

6. MISTLETOE – TFR 113
Joe Tickle | J: Taylor Fisher

Big-priced improver last time at Fontwell when second over 2m6f.

Point background suggests stamina will help, but she was always prominent.

Not entirely straightforward but merits attention off last run.


Rating: 6.5/10


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Interesting Outsiders:

3. BROOKLYN CALLIN (IRE)
Nicky Henderson | J: James Bowen

Sister to a fair chaser; point winner.

More promise on second bumper start but still green.

Makes hurdle debut here; Henderson doesn’t often pitch them in for experience, so this may be informative.


Rating: 6/10

7. PLUS POINT – TFR 104
Billy Aprahamian | J: K. Brogan

Useful on the Flat but hasn’t translated form to hurdles yet.

7th of 11 here over 2m last week; this step up in trip might help.


Rating: 5/10

4. CIAKAT (IRE) – TFR 93
Fergal O’Brien | J: Fern O’Brien

Pedigree offers some stamina hope, but hasn’t shown enough in two hurdle runs to fancy.

35L fourth of 5 at Warwick last time.


Rating: 3.5/10

2. ARCTIC BLUE
Stuart Kittow | J: David Noonan

No form under rules; pulled up on both hurdle runs since 22-month absence.

Lacks recent promise and returns again off 80 days.


Rating: 1.5/10


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Trainer Trends:

Paul Nicholls has a strong record with mares in novice hurdles, particularly when dropping in class from Cheltenham festivals.

Dan Skelton, as flagged in Smart Stats, is a notable trainer in spring/summer and often gets them ready after a layoff.



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Summary Tissue Estimate (based on Timeform adjusted ratings, trends, and profiles):

Horse Estimated Odds

Jena D’Oudairies 6/4
Hard Dealt 11/4
Top Tier Gossip 13/2
Mistletoe 10/1
Brooklyn Callin 14/1
Plus Point 20/1
Ciakat 33/1
Arctic Blue 100/1



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Market Advice:

Keep an eye on Top Tier Gossip and Brooklyn Callin in the market – both return from breaks and represent capable yards with decent strike rates in mares’ races.

Any market drift on Jena D’Oudairies would be a concern given her prior odds-on in-running defeat and possible bounce risk post-Cheltenham.