Race Overview and Conditions

A 13-runner 0–70 handicap sprint over a stiff 6f at Chepstow. The ground is good to firm (good in places), which should ensure a true test at the trip. The pace forecast is very strong, suggesting a burn-up up front. That setup typically suits strong travellers or closers at this venue.

Pace/Draw Angle:
Draw bias appears neutral, but prominent racers tend to go well at this track and trip, although with such a strong predicted gallop, those held up may get into it late. This scenario may hinder trailblazers like Connie’s Rose, and favour Vaunted, who can come off a strong gallop.


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Leading Contenders

BEAR ROCK (TFR 85)
Progressive profile, off the mark last time in a big-field Haydock handicap. Up 3lb but has Hollie Doyle booked again and should get a good stalking trip. Handles quick ground.
Rating: 8/10

MOJOMAKER (TFR 84)
Consistent of late, hitting the frame three times in a row. Has been running well without quite getting there. Stays the trip, and this is his grade.
Rating: 7.5/10

FRANCISCO (TFR 83)
Scored at Wolverhampton last time, getting the better of a pace bias. Often misses the break but this race could fall into his lap if they overcook it.
Rating: 7.5/10

SAFFREDI (TFR 83)
Been in good form on the all-weather and acts on turf. Comes here race-fit, though may face competition for the lead and needs a career best off this mark.
Rating: 7/10

MONKEY MISS (TFR 82)
Returned from a stable switch and long layoff. Had excuses when last seen. Goes well fresh, and is 3-6 in cheekpieces. Still, not obviously well treated.
Rating: 6.5/10


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Main Dangers and Notables

MACS DILEMMA (TFR 80)
Returning off 240 days but has form at the track and has won this race before (2022). John O’Shea has two wins in the past 10 renewals and a good profit with runners off breaks.
Rating: 7/10 (market watch advised)

VAUNTED (TFR 83)
Needed the run last time but fits the race pace profile well. Acts on firm ground, goes well here, and has Tom Marquand up. 3lb below last winning mark.
Rating: 7/10 (interesting each-way)

TEN CLUB (TFR 81)
Not far behind in a decent Kempton contest in March. Needs to prove effectiveness back on turf but has a workable mark.
Rating: 6.5/10


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Interesting Outsiders

VAPE (TFR 79)
Chepstow winner last summer and may strip fitter for this second run back. Down to a good mark.
Rating: 6.5/10

MOE’S LEGACY (TFR 84?)
Looked rusty on reappearance. Triple winner last season, including over this trip. Might improve but still 2lb above last winning mark.
Rating: 6/10

BAMA LAMA (TFR 83)
Solid turf form, but not easy to win with and last few runs suggest decline.
Rating: 6/10

RADIANT ANGEL (TFR 82)
Only modest turf form. Below par on last few runs but was close to Saffredi in April.
Rating: 5.5/10

CONNIE’S ROSE (TFR 80?)
Could get taken on for the lead and hasn’t shown much in 2025. Best watched unless there’s strong market support.
Rating: 5/10


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Trends and Trainer Notes

John O’Shea (Macs Dilemma) has 2 wins in past 10 editions and has a strong record off a break.

Grace Harris runs two: Connie’s Rose and Saffredi – both course winners.

Last 3 winners were aged 4 to 6 and had winning course or distance form.



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Tissue Estimate (100%)

Bear Rock – 4/1
Mojomaker – 5/1
Francisco – 6/1
Saffredi – 8/1
Vaunted – 9/1
Macs Dilemma – 10/1
Monkey Miss – 12/1
Vape – 14/1
Ten Club – 14/1
Moe’s Legacy – 16/1
Bama Lama – 16/1
Radiant Angel – 20/1
Connie’s Rose – 25/1


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Summary

A strongly run 6f handicap that could suit closers. Bear Rock and Francisco head the shortlist based on form and track profile suitability, while Mojomaker remains a reliable placer. Vaunted and Macs Dilemma rate interesting outsiders if support comes. With 13 runners, this is suitable for each-way plays – particularly those expected to benefit from the burn-up.