---

Pace/Draw Angle

This is a big-field 3yo handicap over a turning 7f111y at Roscommon. Timeform flags a strong pace likely to develop. A low draw is historically favoured here – something well-supported by Timeform’s draw bias data. Prominent runners in low stalls often dominate on decent ground, especially when stamina is assured.

---

Contenders

Amber Blossom (Draw 4) – Adjusted Rating: 75 – Mark: 8/10

Reliable filly who has twice finished runner-up in Dundalk AW nurseries. She acts well off the pace and brings consistent form. 59 days off but proven fit from breaks and has a workable mark. Timeform flags her as one who often hangs late on. Her best runs are at 1m and 7f on synthetics, but the draw and track position could suit.

Gangsta Man (3) – Adj: 79 – Mark: 7/10

Prominent-runner type who brings strong nursery form from the autumn, including a Naas 4th (beaten 2½L). He’s returning from a 211-day layoff, so market support would be a key pointer. Still, he has the raw figures to compete if tuned up.

Great Mover (13) – Adj: 76 – Mark: 7/10

Returned with an eyecatching Naas 4th and showed better class in autumn nurseries. Wears first-time cheekpieces and has been ridden handily in past races. The wide draw is not ideal, but her best effort was a narrow defeat to Mykonian Odyssey – strong form in this bracket.

Vega’s Muse (11) – Adj: 70 – Mark: 6.5/10

Well-bred and not disgraced when seventh on handicap debut over 1m at Gowran. Stronger form likely to come now handicapping. However, she can race freely and is drawn wide in a race with pace, which could be a concern tactically.

Widely Acclaimed (2) – Adj: 74 – Mark: 6.5/10

Has been shaping better than bare results suggest. Notably backed when fourth at Tipperary, and now has a low draw and a handy weight. Adam Caffrey’s 5lb claim is useful. One of the more interesting dark horses.

---

Main Dangers

• Pompano Beach (14) – Adj: 73 – Mark: 6.5/10
  Ran respectably in decent maidens and fifth on nursery debut behind Sunriseontheboyne. Joseph O’Brien’s runners often improve with racing, and she stays the trip. A little wide in stall 14 but capable of a frame finish.
• Navajo Point (17) – Adj: 76 – Mark: 6.5/10
  Showed promise behind Saint Brandon on reappearance and looks fairly treated. Wide draw again a negative, but shaped well in a better maiden last backend at the Curragh.
• Touted Plan (9) – Adj: 65 – Mark: 6/10
  Has yet to fire in handicaps but may improve for the step back up in trip. Smart Stats note trainer Joseph G. Murphy’s strong record when having just one runner at a flat meeting (+£11.25 to £1 level stake).

---

Interesting Outsiders

• Blondina (12) – Adj: 72 – Mark: 6/10
  Second run off a break after showing some promise on handicap debut. Trainer Jim Bolger’s 3yo handicappers can improve sharply between runs.
• Lovely (8) – Adj: 62 – Mark: 5.5/10
  Has a standout pedigree and shaped better last time at Cork when fifth. This is her first handicap, and she could surprise now going up in trip. Lightly raced and open to improvement.
• The Dark Baron (6) – Adj: 63 – Mark: 5/10
  Returns from 211 days off – a solid physical type who didn’t show much in maidens. Wears first-time tongue tie and blinkers again. Watch the market.

---

Other Runners (Brief Notes)

Horse	Draw	Adj	Mark /10	Notes
Moonhall Lass	1	72	5.5	Plenty of runs but may struggle to improve further
Bluebelardo	16	71	4.5	Best form at sprint trips, wide draw
Sea View Lady	15	65	4	Poor maiden form, hard to fancy on evidence
Rising Sky	5	66	4.5	Maiden form modest, pace setup may not suit
Northern Attitude	10	73	4	Reserve; big drift likely
Georg Zhukov	18	70	4	Another reserve; patchy profile and wide
Zaraahmando	7	78	5	Ran well last time; awkward head carriage
Amber Blossom	4	75	8	One of the likelier types; proven form, good draw

---

Significant Trends / Comments

• Trainer Wins: No known past winners in this specific race.
• Market Watch: Key for Gangsta Man, The Dark Baron, and Blondina, all returning from layoffs over 90 days.
• Strong Stats: Touted Plan’s trainer Joseph G. Murphy profitable when sending one runner to a flat meeting.

---

Each-Way Angles (8+ Runners)

• Amber Blossom – consistent and well drawn
• Great Mover – strong form last season, fit and proven at trip
• Widely Acclaimed – low draw, improving quietly

---

Tissue Estimate (Guide Prices)

Horse	Estimate
Amber Blossom	5/1
Great Mover	13/2
Gangsta Man	7/1
Vega’s Muse	15/2
Widely Acclaimed	8/1
Pompano Beach	9/1
Navajo Point	10/1
Touted Plan	12/1
Blondina	14/1
Lovely	16/1
Zaraahmando	16/1
Moonhall Lass	20/1
Others	25/1+