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Race Conditions & Setup

This is a competitive Class 6 apprentice handicap over an extended 1m4f on good ground. The pace projection is strong, which could put pressure on early front-runners. Historical draw bias at Bellewstown favours low numbers, particularly over middle distances when pace collapses are possible.

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Pace/Draw Outlook

• Low draws (1–5) are historically favoured.
• Strong pace expected, which may disadvantage committed front-runners like Duke of Leggagh and Stariam.
• Hold-up types or those ridden just off the pace may find conditions to suit. That could bring Carried With Love and Bambeano right into play.

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Strongest Contenders

• Carried With Love (Draw 7, Joseph O’Brien) – 8.5/10
  Timeform Adj: 115
  Well-handicapped on hurdling form and shaped very nicely on her final flat start last season. Landed a 19-runner maiden hurdle at Cork last time and looks to have more to give returned to the level. Open to improvement in handicaps and well drawn to stalk the speed.
• Duke of Leggagh (Draw 1, Michael Mulvany) – 7.5/10
  Timeform Adj: 77
  Has run well this spring and was a creditable third at Ballinrobe. However, his on-pace style may not be ideally suited to the predicted strong tempo. Still, he’s in-form, has a good draw, and clearly retains ability.
• Grizabella (Draw 14, Paul Flynn) – 7/10
  Timeform Adj: 76
  Comes here off a recent win at Sligo and may benefit from a pace collapse again. Drawn a bit wide, but her ability to travel and quicken makes her dangerous if things fall right.
• Bambeano (Draw 10, C. Moore) – 7/10
  Timeform Adj: 78
  Just touched off by Grizabella last time when racing closer to a strong pace. Has blinkers retained and a decent mid-pack draw. Could reverse form depending on how this unfolds tactically.

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Main Dangers

• Barrogstown Girl (Draw 11, Jarlath Fahey) – 6.5/10
  Timeform Adj: 75
  Multiple wins in 2024 but shaped as if needing her return. Could bounce back from that effort and is proven at the trip.
• Autocrat (Draw 4, R. Donohoe) – 6.5/10
  Timeform Adj: 72
  Fair turf/AW performer with tactical speed. Can go forward but was possibly too aggressive last time. May be better held up this time.
• Fianna (Draw 13, W. McCreery) – 6/10
  Timeform Adj: 66
  Maiden profile with potential, not knocked about last time after a 7-month layoff. Yard can get them ready, but draw and inexperience could count against.

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Interesting Outsiders / Profiles to Watch

• Empress Alma (Draw 15, G. Cromwell) – 6.5/10
  Timeform Adj: 73
  Progressive through last summer but returns from a 214-day absence. If market speaks positively, she’s very capable.
• Inchiquin Star (Draw 6, P. Kiely) – 6/10
  Timeform Adj: 77+
  Unseated in a hurdle on last appearance, but decent handicap form in 2024. Watch for support.
• Chatterbox (Draw 12, J.J. Murphy) – 5.5/10
  Timeform Adj: 98 (likely inflated from hurdles)
  One to monitor for a staying-on late run, especially if ground softens further. Long layoff but fair profile.

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Runners Returning from 90+ Day Layoffs (Market Watch)

• Stariam, Inchiquin Star, Chatterbox, Secret Rock, Empress Alma, Mayo For Sam – all should be monitored for late market moves. Empress Alma in particular is of interest if backed.

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Trainer Trends

No standout trainer with prior success in this specific race, though Joseph O’Brien, Gavin Cromwell, and Jessica Harrington (Stariam) are all capable of readying one after a break.

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Runner Ratings (out of 10)

• Carried With Love – 8.5
• Duke of Leggagh – 7.5
• Grizabella – 7
• Bambeano – 7
• Barrogstown Girl – 6.5
• Autocrat – 6.5
• Fianna – 6
• Empress Alma – 6.5
• Inchiquin Star – 6
• Chatterbox – 5.5
• Forlio – 5.5
• Stariam – 5
• Secret Rock – 5
• Mayo For Sam – 4.5
• Miss Australie – 3.5
• Timeonourside – 3

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Tissue Price Estimate (top 8)

• Carried With Love – 7/2
• Duke Of Leggagh – 6/1
• Bambeano – 13/2
• Grizabella – 7/1
• Barrogstown Girl – 10/1
• Autocrat – 10/1
• Empress Alma – 12/1
• Fianna – 14/1

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Summary & Advice

This is a race with multiple angles, including last-time-out winners and potential improvers from hurdles. Carried With Love sets the standard on adjusted ratings and recent hurdles form, and with her lightly-raced flat profile, she is well treated. Duke of Leggagh, from stall 1, is solid but might be vulnerable late. Grizabella and Bambeano are very closely matched again, but the pace setup might favour the latter.

Each-way angles apply here with 16 runners declared, but check for non-runners before betting. Preference is for those drawn middle to low who can settle off the pace.