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Pace/Draw Analysis

Timeform flags a very weak pace in this field, with few natural front-runners. This setup is expected to suit those able to race prominently or sit handy, especially in a field of inexperienced or lightly raced fillies.

• Shaool (drawn 6) and Gaoth Chuil (drawn 5) may hold positional advantage in a muddling gallop, having shown mid-to-prominent race positions previously.
• Parish Express, Sissi, and Theflyingbee are usually held up and could be compromised if the tempo stays slow throughout.

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Strongest Contenders

Shaool (TFR 88 Adj) – J P Murtagh

Has steadily progressed, placing at Dundalk and Limerick (third behind Victoria Kesia) and comes in here fit and consistent. Likely to be ridden forward, which suits the anticipated pace scenario. Trainer has a 2-from-6 record in 4yo+ maidens at this course over the past five years.
Rating: 8.5/10

Calais (No rating yet) – G P Cromwell

A 600,000Y yearling making a notably late debut. By Siyouni out of a Group 2-winning dam and a half-sister to US stakes performer. Lack of racecourse evidence is a concern, but if she’s straight enough, she could prove better than this level.
Rating: 7.5/10

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Main Dangers

Gaoth Chuil (TFR 80 Adj) – T M Walsh

A capable jumps mare (rated 136+) who was considerately handled on sole Flat start (Curragh, 10th beaten 10L). Stamina no concern, and if able to transfer her hurdle form, she’s a player. Race fitness is a plus after recent chase run.
Rating: 7/10

Ina Mina (TFR 85+ Adj) – K J Condon

Fourth last time at Limerick was a step back in the right direction. Her best run came on turf (heavy), and she’s consistent enough to hold each-way claims.
Rating: 7/10

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Interesting Outsiders

Alinta (TFR 79 Adj) – P Twomey

Well-related (dam a Moyglare winner), but hasn’t built on promising Curragh debut last summer. Absent 301 days, but P Twomey is 31% with 10f+ runners and £21 profit level-stake with horses off breaks, so market support would be significant.
Rating: 6.5/10

Sissi (TFR 85 Adj) – J P O’Brien

Ran to 85 when second at Killarney but was well held since. Tongue-tied, and trades as though she’s not straightforward (traded at ≤50% BSP LTO). Market might guide.
Rating: 6/10

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Others

• Theflyingbee (TFR 70 Adj) – Moderate hurdler; flat effort at Bellewstown was one-paced. Best watched.
  Rating: 4.5/10
• Parish Express (TFR 59 Adj) – J S Bolger
  Second start, 12L seventh at Gowran and now upped in trip. Needs significant improvement.
  Rating: 4/10

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Trainer Trends

• P. Twomey (Alinta): Profitable to follow with horses off breaks and at staying trips.
• Joseph O’Brien (Sissi): Won this in 2022 with a similar profile filly.
• No repeat trainer winners in the past five runnings.

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Timeform Comment Summary

• Shaool gets the clear nod from the Timeform analyst.
• Calais has a standout pedigree and is noted as the unknown quantity.
• Ina Mina and Gaoth Chuil rate next best among the exposed types.

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Marks Out of Ten

Horse	Trainer	Adj TFR	Score/10
Shaool	J P Murtagh	88	8.5
Calais	G P Cromwell	—	7.5
Gaoth Chuil	T M Walsh	80	7.0
Ina Mina	K J Condon	85+	7.0
Alinta	P Twomey	79	6.5
Sissi	J P O’Brien	85	6.0
Theflyingbee	F G Hand	70	4.5
Parish Express	J S Bolger	59	4.0

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Tissue Estimate (Reflecting Ratings + Profiles)

1. Shaool – 9/4
2. Calais – 3/1
3. Ina Mina – 6/1
4. Gaoth Chuil – 13/2
5. Alinta – 9/1
6. Sissi – 12/1
7. Theflyingbee – 25/1
8. Parish Express – 33/1

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Conclusion

Shaool sets the standard on known form, with race fitness and a running style suited to a muddling gallop. Calais is the wildcard with a standout pedigree, and Gaoth Chuil may improve back on the Flat. Market support for Alinta after a long break could be telling, and Sissi has the ability if putting it all together.

Each-Way Angle: With 8 runners, Ina Mina may offer value for a place based on her adjusted rating and race fitness.