Pace & Draw Angles

Pace is expected to be strong, which may favour prominent racers over hold-up types. With York’s sprint track historically leaning towards lower-numbered draws on quick ground, those drawn low with tactical speed (e.g. Bergerac, Holkham Bay, Secret Guest) could be best placed. Horses held up in rear or drawn high may need luck or a collapse in pace.


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Strongest Contenders

Two Tribes (TFR 117, Draw 15) – Returned with a strong effort at Newmarket (close third to More Thunder), suggesting he’s improved again. Ryan Moore booked, and trainer Richard Spencer is in form. If he overcomes a wide draw, he rates a leading contender. Rating: 8.5/10

Holkham Bay (TFR 114, Draw 12) – Ran with promise at Goodwood in a messy race. Clearly retains ability and goes well at York. Oisin Murphy back on board and William Knight has a solid one-runner strike rate. Rating: 8.5/10

We Never Stop (TFR 113, Draw 6) – Arrives on a hat-trick, including AW Finals Day win. Trainer Kevin Ryan in form and has won this race twice in the last 10 years. Track, ground, and trip suit. Respected. Rating: 8/10

Change Sings (TFR 114, Draw 16) – Progressive in top sprint handicaps, narrowly denied last time at Newbury. Eve Johnson Houghton’s yard in fair order. High draw is a concern tactically. Rating: 7.5/10

Bergerac (TFR 115, Draw 5) – Has run well at York before and showed up well for a long way last time behind Prince of Pillo. Front-runner who should be suited by strong pace scenario. Rating: 7.5/10


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Main Dangers

Glenfinnan (TFR 116, Draw 11) – Luckless on return at Doncaster after being badly hampered. Could be well treated and trainer Michael Dods has a good record in the race. Needs a clean run. Rating: 7/10

Secret Guest (TFR 113, Draw 14) – Won nicely at Thirsk latest and has a breathing op behind him. Rides the pace well and handles most conditions. Rating: 7/10

Commanche Falls (TFR 114, Draw 4) – High-class sprinter when on song, and York regular. Not at best lately, but entitled to come forward for Leicester run. Each-way material if the market speaks positively. Rating: 6.5/10


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Interesting Outsiders & Notes

Mister Sox (TFR 110, Draw 8) – In great form, winning three on the spin. Up in class now and 5lb penalty makes life harder, but thriving and should give a solid account. Rating: 6.5/10

Prince of Pillo (TFR 114, Draw 1) – Has won two of last three and handles sharp 6f well. Down the middle of the draw helps. Trainer Richard Fahey has a good record in the race. Rating: 6.5/10

Ramazan (TFR 109, Draw 10) – Course winner but hasn’t returned in good form. May need to drop a few pounds. Rating: 5.5/10

Dark Thirty (TFR 114, Draw 3) – Won on seasonal debut at Doncaster but fluffed the start badly last time. Capable, but inconsistent. Rating: 6/10

First Folio (TFR 113, Draw 2) – Hasn’t shown much this year, and while well-handicapped on old form, hard to be confident. Rating: 5/10

Rousing Encore (TFR 115, Draw 13) – Eyecatcher at Leicester; shaped better than result. Can run well at a price with clear sailing. Rating: 6.5/10

Korker (TFR 109, Draw 7) – Classy but frustrating sort who’s often slowly away. Hasn’t looked ready in two 2025 starts. Rating: 5/10

Brave Empire (TFR 111, Draw 9) – Absent 307 days, and hasn’t shown much since moving yards. Could need the run. Market watch essential. Rating: 4/10


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Notable Trainer Trends

Kevin Ryan: 2 wins in last 10 renewals – saddles Bergerac and We Never Stop.

Richard Fahey: 2 wins in last 10 – saddles Prince of Pillo and Ramazan.

William Knight has a good single-runner strike rate at flat meetings – Holkham Bay could be primed.



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Timeform Profile Comments

Holkham Bay: “Horse in focus” – caught the eye at Goodwood.

We Never Stop: “Hot trainer” + recent form + headgear = serious contender.

Two Tribes: “Jockey uplift” + “Hot trainer” – strong combo with Ryan Moore.



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Each-Way Angles (16 runners)

Each-way value likely lies with:

Glenfinnan (offered no run last time, strong TFR)

Secret Guest (resurgent and well positioned)

Rousing Encore (form better than bare result)



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Tissue Price Estimate

Horse Tissue

Two Tribes 5/1
Holkham Bay 6/1
We Never Stop 13/2
Change Sings 8/1
Bergerac 10/1
Glenfinnan 12/1
Secret Guest 14/1
Prince of Pillo 14/1
Mister Sox 16/1
Commanche Falls 16/1
Rousing Encore 16/1
Dark Thirty 18/1
Ramazan 22/1
First Folio 28/1
Korker 33/1
Brave Empire 40/1



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Final Advice

Market watching is essential for those off long layoffs: notably Brave Empire, Glenfinnan, and Dark Thirty.

Prominent racers drawn low could be advantaged given expected pace and draw pattern.

A strong and deep handicap where the top four in the betting warrant respect, but credible cases exist down to 16/1 in what looks a tight mid-division.