Going: Good to Firm (Good in places)
Field Size: 15 runners
Pace Forecast: Strong
Pace Bias: Hold-up runners generally favoured over this trip at York. This suits closers like Saratoga Gold and Don Simon. Prominent racers may be pressured early.
Strongest Contenders
- DON SIMON (IRE) (TFR 101, Ryan Moore, Draw 4)
Lightly raced and improving. Just failed in a big field at Chelmsford (runner-up to a now higher-rated winner). By Sea The Stars, from an elite damline. Strong form credentials with pace setup to suit.
Rating: 9/10 - CAPLA LAZARUS (IRE) (TFR 100p, Billy Garritty, Draw 10)
Progressive 4yo. Impressive Redcar win on handicap debut, staying on strongly. Still unexposed and shapes as if this longer trip will suit.
Rating: 8.5/10 - PAPAGEI (TFR 96, Daniel Muscutt, Draw 13)
Multiple 2024 winner who returned with a solid third at Musselburgh. Effective over 1m4f, goes on quick ground. Race-fit and drawn wide, but not overly pace-dependent.
Rating: 8/10 - KITSUNE POWER (IRE) (TFR 95+, David Allan, Draw 9)
Returned with a big run at Thirsk (clear of the rest in 2nd). Now fully fit and handles a range of conditions. The pace could help him settle and finish off.
Rating: 7.5/10
Main Dangers / Others to Note
- GREAT BEDWYN (TFR 98, Sean Levey)
Multiple solid staying runs last season including here. Returns from a 183-day break for an in-form yard. Form chance if sharp enough.
Rating: 7/10 - MASEKELA (IRE) (TFR 98, James Sullivan)
Rejuvenated in recent runs and caught the eye when second at Hamilton off a steady gallop. Well handicapped on old form and might thrive with a true pace.
Rating: 7/10 - WHATHAPPENSINVEGAS (IRE) (TFR 96, Tom Marquand, Draw 15)
Goes well fresh, ran on late at Haydock and could improve again over this longer trip. Wide draw isn’t ideal but has ability to overcome it with patience.
Rating: 7/10 - CELLO (TFR 99, Oisin Murphy)
Inconsistent but has figures to compete if bouncing back. Needs to reverse a below-par effort last time.
Rating: 6.5/10
Interesting Outsiders
- MAGHLAAK (TFR 99, Draw 8)
Fair on both codes, down in the weights, and ran well in a big field last time. Not out of it if he builds on that.
Rating: 6/10 - SARATOGA GOLD (TFR 97, Draw 6)
Often held up, suited by a strong gallop. A player if the pace collapses late, but needs to be delivered perfectly.
Rating: 6/10 - GLISTENING NIGHTS / LIGHTENING COMPANY / MOLINARI / CHURCHELLA
All have fair backform but need significant improvement or show patchy recent records.
Ratings: 5–6/10
Trainer Trends
- Adrian Keatley won this race in 2022 and 2023, and he runs Maghlaak today – not without claims but possibly stable second string.
- Andrew Balding (Cello) and James Ferguson (Papagei) both have runners in solid form.
- Ed Dunlop (Don Simon) has his horses running well and this colt has the standout pedigree in the field.
Each-Way Angles
With 15 runners and likely 4 places available:
- Kitsune Power, Whathappensinvegas, and Masekela all bring solid staying form and appeal from an each-way perspective if you’re playing against the top of the market.
Tissue Estimate (Guide Only)
| Horse | Estimated Odds |
|---|---|
| Don Simon | 4/1 |
| Capla Lazarus | 5/1 |
| Papagei | 7/1 |
| Kitsune Power | 8/1 |
| Great Bedwyn | 10/1 |
| Whathappensinvegas | 10/1 |
| Masekela | 11/1 |
| Saratoga Gold | 14/1 |
| Maghlaak | 14/1 |
| Cello | 16/1 |
| Molinari | 20/1 |
| Lightening Company | 25/1 |
| Glistening Nights | 25/1 |
| Ey Up Its The Boss | 25/1 |
| Churchella | 33/1 |
Final Advice
The market may guide closer to the off, particularly around Don Simon and Capla Lazarus, both of whom bring strong progressive profiles. Watch for late support on any of the stayers like Saratoga Gold or Kitsune Power. This looks a good race for patient riders from midfield or worse – the front end may collapse in the final 2f.
TimeWise Chronicles 
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