TimeWise Chronicles

17:45 TIPPERARY – tipperaryraces.ie MARES MAIDEN HURDLE (4yo+, 2m 190y, 16 runners)

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Going: Good to Yielding
Pace Forecast: Even
Track: Right-handed, undulating, sharp finish
Draw/Pace Bias: Hold-up runners often do well here when there’s a decent pace; today’s even gallop means tactical speed or a handy position may prove crucial.

Top Timeform Adjusted Ratings

HorseAdjusted Rating
WHISPERING HOPES122
EASTERN WIND121
NUTBUSH CITY116
WALK ON ANNILOG115
MILE END111
LADY BEE GREAT114

Strongest Contenders

  • WHISPERING HOPES (TFR 122)
    Gordon Elliott’s mare has solid juvenile hurdle form, especially her Gowran and Downpatrick runs last autumn. Returns from a 178-day break, but her tactical speed and ability to race handy should suit this setup well.
    Rating: 8.5/10
  • EASTERN WIND (121)
    Caught the eye when brought down at the last on hurdling debut at Navan when sure to place. Won on the Flat at Bellewstown prior. Her blend of fitness and hurdling promise marks her out in a winnable race.
    Rating: 8/10
  • WALK ON ANNILOG (115)
    Left previous form behind when runner-up at Kilbeggan last month, travelling well and keeping on. Repeat of that would put her in the mix again.
    Rating: 7.5/10
  • NUTBUSH CITY (116)
    Showed dramatic improvement to place at Tramore last time at 125/1, confirming she has latent ability. Repeat of that run makes her a contender in an open field.
    Rating: 7.5/10

Main Dangers

  • MILE END (111)
    Fair Flat form and has shown enough over hurdles to merit interest. Fourth last time in a fair Ballinrobe race. Respected, especially if finding more with cheekpieces.
    Rating: 7/10
  • LADY BEE GREAT (114)
    Solid Naas run followed by a lesser effort; may benefit from this return to slightly better ground. First-time hood could unlock improvement.
    Rating: 6.5/10

Interesting Outsiders

  • BOUJEE
    Hasn’t been seen since winning a Down Royal bumper nearly 3 years ago. Long absence is a concern but market support would be notable.
    Rating: 6/10
  • CHOCOLATE TRUFFLES (Martin Brassil’s only runner on the card, +£13.63 LSP stat)
    Interesting pedigree (related to Norn Iron) and debuts in a race with low depth. Trainer’s record with limited runners worth noting.
    Rating: 6/10
  • DERREYAH (FR)
    Not seen since debut in France in 2023, but profile suggests she’ll want further. Market may guide.
    Rating: 5.5/10

Each-Way Value (16 Runners)

With 4 places widely available, two at bigger prices appeal on profile or trainer angle:

  • CHOCOLATE TRUFFLES – debutant from a canny yard
  • BLOUJEE – if supported, may outrun odds despite layoff

Tissue Estimate

HorseEstimated Odds
Whispering Hopes4/1
Eastern Wind5/1
Walk On Annilog6/1
Nutbush City6/1
Mile End8/1
Lady Bee Great10/1
Boujee14/1
Chocolate Truffles14/1
Teenage Kiss20/1
Conflict Lady50/1
Others33/1–100/1

Final Notes

  • Watch for market support on Boujee (992-day layoff), Chocolate Truffles (trainer LSP angle), and Eastern Wind (who fell when staying on).
  • Whispering Hopes has the best adjusted figure and tactical speed to suit pace, but has been off since November.
  • A winnable race lacking standout hurdling form. Tactical positioning and jumping fluency will decide it.

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