Pace/Dynamics:
Timeform predicts a very weak early pace, which may disadvantage those needing a true gallop to settle and close late. Specifically, Chichester—held up in past starts—could find his finishing effort blunted, while Kinbara Hills, a handier type, may be better suited by this steady tempo.


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Strongest Contenders

The Last Cloud – Timeform Rating: 118 – 8/10
Placed on all three hurdle runs and narrowly denied at Catterick last time. Hung left but stuck on well. He now gets Brian Hughes in the saddle, which is a notable positive (38% strike rate on hurdle favourites). Timeform notes suggest he threw away a winning opportunity, but this race lacks depth and he sets a clear form standard.

Chichester – Timeform Rating: 113p – 7.5/10
A smart Flat performer (peak RPR 107) who showed promise in two hurdle runs. Finished with running left when fourth at Musselburgh last time, suggesting he’s capable of more. Lucinda Russell has trained two winners of this race in the last 10 years. Strong claims if adapting to the likely slow gallop.

Kinbara Hills – Timeform Rating: 115 – 7/10
Returned from a 4-month break with a midfield run in a competitive handicap at Fairyhouse. That run should bring him on fitness-wise. The switch back to maiden company and better ground may help, and Sean Bowen is a notable booking (30% strike rate at Perth). Market support would be meaningful.


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Main Dangers

Gonnino – Timeform Rating: 112 – 6.5/10
Unexposed and improved last time when fourth at Kelso over a bit further. Could build on that again with conditions likely to suit, but still needs to find a few pounds to trouble the principals.

Mosstown Mill – Timeform Rating: unranked – 6.5/10
Modest bumper run at Punchestown for Ciaran Murphy, but has since won an Irish point. Fitness assured, and switch to hurdles for Mike Smith is interesting given yard has two other runners declared. Pedigree hints at aptitude for this trip, though 380-day layoff is a concern. Needs a positive market signal.


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Interesting Outsiders

Drumlee Myth – Timeform Rating: unranked – 5/10
Placed in three bumpers, fell in a point, and down the field in maiden hurdles so far. Might improve with racing fitness, but needs to bounce back strongly. Tends to race forward, which could help in this scenario.

Dapper Gent – Timeform Rating: 105 – 5/10
Back from a 248-day break and has placed over hurdles but looks exposed and probably wants further. Might find this too sharp unless others underperform.


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Unlikely to Feature

Amdoinmebest – unraced under rules, moderate Irish point form. 3/10

Don’t Look Back – poor recent form, injury concerns noted. 3/10

Keady Town – well beaten in two starts including a weak Kelso novice. 2.5/10

Cloudsareclearing – shown very little so far, jumping issues. 2/10



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Trends & Trainer Notes

Lucinda Russell has won this race twice since 2015 and saddles Chichester.

Irish raiders have a solid record at Perth in low-grade maiden hurdles, giving Kinbara Hills and Drumlee Myth extra interest.

Watch the market for Mosstown Mill (380-day layoff) and Drumlee Myth (off 10 weeks prior to latest) for fitness clues.



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Each-Way Angles (11 runners)

Gonnino and Mosstown Mill appeal as place prospects at bigger prices, especially if the favourite fails to settle or underperforms.

Kinbara Hills could get the run of the race and place at fair odds if supported.



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Tissue Estimate

Horse Tissue Odds

The Last Cloud 5/2
Chichester 10/3
Kinbara Hills 9/2
Gonnino 13/2
Mosstown Mill 15/2
Drumlee Myth 16/1
Dapper Gent 20/1
Don’t Look Back 33/1
Amdoinmebest 40/1
Cloudsareclearing 66/1
Keady Town 80/1



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Summary:
The Last Cloud brings the best hurdle form and looks to have been found a winnable opening, but has to prove he can finish his races cleanly. Chichester has untapped potential and the trainer has form in the race, while Kinbara Hills may be suited by race tempo and is respected on Irish form. The rest need to step forward or show something new, though Gonnino and Mosstown Mill aren’t without place claims. Keep a close eye on market support, especially for those returning from layoffs.