Pace Forecast: Strong
Draw Bias: Favours low draws


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Pace/Draw Angles

The strong pace forecast suggests a well-run race, with The Lion In Winter expected to be prominent early. With a possible low-draw bias on good to firm ground at York, those drawn low with a forward style could be advantaged. Sea Scout (stall 1), Pride of Arras (2), and Tuscan Hills (3) are all low-drawn.


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Strongest Contenders

The Lion In Winter (131p) – Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore
Unbeaten in two starts as a juvenile including the Acomb Stakes over course and distance. That form has worked out extremely well, and Timeform highlights him as likely immune to race tactics. Steps up to 1¼m for the first time but his pedigree and style suggest it will suit.
Rating: 9.5/10

Wimbledon Hawkeye (125) – James Owen/Hector Crouch
Outpaced but stayed on for fifth in the 2000 Guineas, having previously finished second to The Lion In Winter in the Acomb. Strong form, and the extra distance looks a plus.
Rating: 8.5/10

Alpine Trail (118p) – Charlie Appleby/William Buick
Supplemented for this. Progressive colt who made all to win a listed race at Newmarket last time. Well-regarded and likely to be better over 1½m, but his tactical speed could be effective here.
Rating: 8/10

Damysus (119p) – John & Thady Gosden/Kieran Shoemark
Shaped with promise in the Classic Trial at Sandown on return, closing well late on after racing green. Comes from a yard in form and looks to be on a sharp upward curve.
Rating: 8/10


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Main Dangers

Royal Playwright (118p) – Andrew Balding/Oisin Murphy
Royal Lodge runner-up (behind Wimbledon Hawkeye) and ran well on reappearance when third at Newcastle. Strong pedigree and has scope to improve for this step up in trip.
Rating: 7.5/10

Sea Scout (115p) – Simon & Ed Crisford/Harry Davies
Big price winner of a listed race at Epsom, but he’s progressing well and may still be under the radar. Has a useful pedigree and shapes as though 1¼m will suit.
Rating: 7/10

Tuscan Hills (117p) – Raphael Freire/David Egan
Unbeaten at two, including a wide-margin listed win at Pontefract. Off for 206 days but open to further improvement.
Rating: 7/10


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Interesting Outsiders

Nightwalker (114p) – John & Thady Gosden/Robert Havlin
Still green but has form in Group company and remains with potential. Market strength would be notable on second run for this yard after leaving Sir Michael Stoute.
Rating: 6.5/10

Devil’s Advocate (114p) – John & Thady Gosden/Benoit de la Sayette
Impressive in a Chelmsford maiden but disappointing on reappearance behind Sea Scout. Still early days.
Rating: 6/10

Mister Rizz (106p) – Ed Walker/Tom Marquand
Eased to a maiden win last time and is bred to improve significantly for further, but this is a big step up in class.
Rating: 5.5/10

Pride of Arras (104P) – Ralph Beckett/Rossa Ryan
Won a maiden last summer but has not been seen in 280 days. Likely to need the run and market support would be interesting.
Rating: 5/10


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Trends and Trainer Notes

Aidan O’Brien has won this race four times – always a trainer to respect in this.

Gosden yard is in form and runs three (Damysus, Devil’s Advocate, Nightwalker).

This race often produces top-level performers – Desert Crown and Hurricane Lane both used this as a stepping stone to Group 1 success.



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Market Watch Advice

Keep an eye on:

The Lion In Winter – clear market leader; any drift would be a note of caution.

Nightwalker, Pride of Arras, Devil’s Advocate – all return from layoffs of 90+ days. Any strong support would signal stable confidence.

Alpine Trail – supplemented and from a powerful yard; market should confirm stable expectations.



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Each-Way Angles (11 runners)

With a full field, each-way options include Royal Playwright, Damysus, and Sea Scout, all of whom are open to improvement and have solid Timeform ratings.


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Tissue Estimate

1. The Lion In Winter – 6/4


2. Wimbledon Hawkeye – 6/1


3. Alpine Trail – 7/1


4. Damysus – 8/1


5. Royal Playwright – 10/1


6. Sea Scout – 14/1


7. Tuscan Hills – 14/1


8. Nightwalker – 20/1


9. Devil’s Advocate – 25/1


10. Mister Rizz – 33/1


11. Pride of Arras – 33/1