Pace Forecast: Even
Pace/Draw Note: Leaders likely to come from Havana Club, Banksman, and D Day Major Winter. Timeform pace model suggests Paragon could be well-positioned, while Havana Club may be caught out if leaders overdo it.

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Leading Contenders

PARAGON (IRE) – Timeform adj: 70p – Draw 4 – Andrew Balding – 2/1

• £140k yearling, Churchill colt with a good physical profile.
• Eye-catching third on handicap debut at Windsor (8f, good to firm) when green and short of room before finishing well.
• Remains unexposed; fitter now and open to improvement.
• Mark: 8.5/10

I FOLLOW RIVERS – Timeform adj: 71p – Draw 2 – Richard Spencer – 7/2

• Progressive and in form, winning back-to-back AW handicaps at Wolverhampton and Kempton.
• May have more to offer switching back to turf, though pedigree leans towards AW.
• Value for more than the margin last time; dangerous if translating progress to Bath.
• Mark: 8/10

ME TARZAN (IRE) – Timeform adj: 70 – Draw 5 – James Fanshawe – 5/2

• Three solid handicap runs this spring, placed all three, most recently a close third at Yarmouth.
• Still improving, though the form level is relatively exposed compared to the top two.
• First-time visor now applied.
• Mark: 7.5/10

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Dangers and Each-Way Angles

D DAY MAJOR WINTER – Timeform adj: 67p – Draw 7 – Kevin Philippart de Foy – 10/1

• Trainer has an 18% strike rate with handicap debutants.
• Ran with promise at Windsor in a maiden, not knocked about and shaped as though 1m would suit.
• Could be a big improver now in a handicap.
• Mark: 6.5/10

HAVANA CLUB – Timeform adj: 70 – Draw 8 – Adrian Wintle – 9/1

• Ex-Warren Greatrex; has shaped well the last twice, second over course and distance on firm ground most recently.
• Tends to race prominently, but could be vulnerable late if there’s sustained pressure.
• Mark: 6.5/10

HERKEIOS – Timeform adj: 68 – Draw 3 – Julia & Shelley Birkett – 9/1

• In frame in five of his last six starts but winless.
• Consistent and reliable but doesn’t quite have the upside of some rivals.
• Mark: 6/10

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Others

• OASIS SUNRISE (22/1, Draw 6) – modest maiden, new stable, switch to turf a possible plus.
  Mark: 4/10
• BANKSMAN (18/1, Draw 1) – very little shown in maidens, will need to improve significantly.
  Mark: 3/10

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Tissue Price Estimate

Horse	Tissue Odds
Paragon	9/4
I Follow Rivers	11/4
Me Tarzan	4/1
D Day Major Winter	8/1
Havana Club	10/1
Herkeios	12/1
Oasis Sunrise	25/1
Banksman	33/1

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Conclusion

• Win Contenders: Paragon (strong scope to improve second run back), I Follow Rivers (in top form, respected).
• Main Dangers: Me Tarzan, D Day Major Winter (unexposed).
• Each-Way Value: 8 declared watch out for non runners.
• Market Watch: Any strong move for D Day Major Winter or late support for Herkeios could be significant.