18:50 Tipperary – SIS Supporting Irish Racing Handicap Hurdle (Div II)

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Conditions: 2m 190y | 4yo+ | Handicap (0–95) | €6,000 | Going: Good to yielding | 19 runners
Pace Forecast: Even
Pace/Draw Angle: Tipperary’s inner hurdles track does not strongly favour front-runners or hold-ups. That said, Timeform notes that hold-up horses often need plenty to drop right at this trip, suggesting forward-positioned types may have an edge. Patty O’Farrell is expected to race prominently and may benefit from how the race sets up.


Strongest Contenders

PATTY O’FARRELL (Timeform adjusted rating 107)
Major eyecatcher when second at Naas to a next-time-out winner. Travelled fluently that day and looked a winner for much of the straight. Up 4lb but remains well handicapped. Jockey Sean Flanagan has a 40% strike-rate on hurdle favourites.
Rating: 9/10

GOOD BYE MILAN (adjusted rating 106)
Gowran Park winner in October and has shaped like a mare with another win in her. Lame when last seen 176 days ago, so market support would be significant.
Rating: 8/10

GIMME A BUZZ (adjusted rating 103)
Lightly raced and posted a career best at Clonmel in January. Absent 90 days. Bred for further improvement and the market may be revealing.
Rating: 7.5/10


Main Dangers

TOOR MOON (adjusted rating 104)
Best form is at around 2 miles. Absent 282 days, but shaped with some promise last summer. Capable if fit.
Rating: 7/10

THATS ALL (adjusted rating 109)
Placed at Punchestown in December in a decent conditional jockeys’ handicap. Ran poorly twice since and now returns from a break.
Rating: 6.5/10

FOURCARDRUN (adjusted rating 88)
Unexposed profile, makes handicap debut. Has shown little in maidens but is bred to progress over this sort of trip. One to monitor in the betting.
Rating: 6.5/10


Interesting Outsiders and Each-Way Angles

ANNIE QUESTIONS (adjusted rating 111)
Ran a big race at Listowel last summer when second in a large field. Off 263 days. If fit, she’s feasibly treated and could outrun her odds.
Rating: 7/10

SPANISH MAID (adjusted rating 91)
Exposed type, but does stay the trip and has some minor place form. Not the most reliable, but not ruled out for fourth or fifth.
Rating: 5.5/10

STILY (adjusted rating 99)
Improved effort last time at Kilbeggan on return from a break. Still early days and may find more.
Rating: 6/10


Layoff Watch (90+ Days)

Keep an eye on the market for the following:

  • Gimme A Buzz (90 days)
  • Good Bye Milan (176 days)
  • Toor Moon (282 days)
  • Thats All (90 days)
  • Fourcardrun (118 days)
  • Annie Questions (263 days)
  • Mattie’s Mountain (52 days, borderline for a bounce)
  • Stily (20 days off latest run but previously had a break)

Support or drift may indicate whether today is a go-day.


Trainer Notes

  • No past winners of this race noted.
  • Peter Maher’s runner Patty O’Farrell arrives on an upward curve with a strong Naas run backed by subsequent form.
  • Enda Bolger’s Gimme A Buzz is interesting as a lightly-raced type now in handicaps.

Tissue Estimate (Top 10)

HorseTissue Odds
Patty O’Farrell5/2
Good Bye Milan6/1
Gimme A Buzz13/2
Annie Questions8/1
Toor Moon10/1
Fourcardrun11/1
Thats All12/1
Stily14/1
Tremaine16/1
Spanish Maid20/1

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