Wednesday, 14 May 2025 | 3m1f | 0–100 | 4yo+ | 21 runners | Going: Good to yielding

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Race Conditions & Pace Map

• Going: Good to yielding
• Pace forecast: Weak. A steady gallop appears likely with few natural front-runners. This should favour those ridden patiently and able to quicken late, while horses who need a thorough stamina test might find conditions unfavourable.
• Pace hint: The likely tempo could suit hold-up horses like Positive Mindset, rather than the more forward-going Barryroe Madam.

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Strongest Contenders

LUMMI ISLAND (S. F. O’Keeffe) – TFR 114+ – Rating: 8/10
Was travelling best and looked the winner before falling at the last in a stronger race at Limerick. That marked a clear step forward. The cheekpieces are now removed, which is a question, but he brings the strongest single piece of form.

MIDNIGHT FAIRY (J. P. Shinnick) – TFR 110 – Rating: 7.5/10
Progressive since entering handicaps and shaped well when second twice over shorter. The trip is unproven, but the pedigree gives encouragement and she remains well treated.

JOE’S TURN (Phillip Enright) – TFR 109 – Rating: 7/10
Won at Kilbeggan last time and has a prior win over fences. Has been on the go and holding his form. Not obviously ahead of the handicapper, but effective at the trip and ground.

WEST OF CARRIG (Mr A. J. Browne) – TFR 125 – Rating: 7/10
Multiple point winner with form in hunter chases. Fell when still in front at Cork. Fair form in a maiden at Clonmel earlier in the season. Not discounted with a clear round.

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Main Dangers and Outsiders to Note

• NAVY WAVES – TFR 109 – Rating: 7/10
  Reliable and consistent, placed several times this spring. Effective at a range of trips and ground. Looks more of a place type unless the race falls apart.
• POSITIVE MINDSET – TFR 97+ – Rating: 6.5/10
  Handicap debutante who has shaped with quiet promise in maidens. One of few in this with scope to improve markedly off a low mark. The likely pace scenario suits.
• BARRYROE MADAM – TFR 116+ – Rating: 6.5/10
  Running a career best when unseating at the last in a Naas handicap. Holds a chance if the fall hasn’t left a mark. Trainer continues in good nick.
• BALLERINA BOXER – TFR 108 – Rating: 6.5/10
  Looked unlucky not to finish closer at Down Royal. Still lightly raced and has shown more since fitted with a hood. Could build on that.
• VINTAGE GOLD – TFR 110 – Rating: 6.5/10
  Consistent and has been placed in similar events. Not obviously well treated but does stay and could run into the frame again.

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Notable Trends and Trainer Notes

• Recent trainer form:
  • Paul Nolan (Spatman de Cerisy) and William Harvey (Ballerina Boxer) are showing strong place strike rates in recent weeks.
  • Trainer Mark McNiff (Joe’s Turn) has won with a similar type at this venue.
• Past winners of this race suggest a wide open contest, with double-digit SPs featuring regularly in recent renewals. No standout repeat trainers among this field from the 2021–2024 editions.
• Timeform notes:
  • Lummi Island is Timeform’s top pick, though the headgear removal is a variable.
  • Positive mentions for Midnight Fairy and Diamonds Diva as unexposed types.
  • Barryroe Madam identified as the ‘horse in focus’.

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Market Watching Advice

• Layoff watch: Be alert to market strength or weakness for runners off for 90+ days:
  • Diamonds Diva, Positive Mindset, Barryroe Madam.
• First-time handicappers:
  • Diamonds Diva and Positive Mindset could be well treated now entering handicaps.

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Ratings Summary (Out of 10)

Horse	Rating
Lummi Island	8
Midnight Fairy	7.5
Joe’s Turn	7
West of Carrig	7
Navy Waves	7
Barryroe Madam	6.5
Positive Mindset	6.5
Vintage Gold	6.5
Ballerina Boxer	6.5
Diamonds Diva	6
Rebellious Gale	6
Nevereverever	5.5
County Champs	5.5
Vroomvroomboo	5
Ashdale Flyer	5
Junot	4.5
Ag Obair Go Crua	4
Phoenix Cowboy	4
Spatman de Cerisy	4
Rewrite The Script	3.5
Nazine	3.5

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Tissue Estimate

Horse	Estimated Odds
Lummi Island	9/2
Midnight Fairy	6/1
Joe’s Turn	13/2
West of Carrig	15/2
Navy Waves	9/1
Barryroe Madam	10/1
Positive Mindset	11/1
Ballerina Boxer	12/1
Vintage Gold	12/1
Diamonds Diva	14/1
Others	16/1 bar