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Pace and Tactical Overview

The pace forecast is very weak, and this could favour a handier type. Notably, Follow Charlie and Golden Moonshake may benefit most, with Theirshegoes at a possible disadvantage if dropped in as usual. Historical pace biases at this trip also suggest those ridden patiently are not always best suited.

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Strongest Contenders

• Follow Charlie (109, 6yo, R Mike Smith)
  Arrives with three solid placed efforts, including a recent second here. Consistent, reliable, and well suited by the trip and conditions. A deserving top-rated contender.
  Rating: 9/10
• Tread Softly Now (107, 6yo, Ian Duncan)
  Two wins this term and possibly best to ignore latest run. Lightly raced for her age and capable of more. Her adjusted rating puts her right in the mix.
  Rating: 8/10
• Theirshegoes (106, 8yo, Sandy Thomson)
  Solid mare when completing; back from a short break after a fall. Would be a big player on her Musselburgh win form. Market strength key off 54-day break.
  Rating: 7.5/10

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Main Dangers

• Golden Moonshake (102, 5yo, Nigel Hawke)
  Ran a respectable second at Hereford last month. Up in trip now and may benefit from a prominent ride in a steadily-run race.
  Rating: 7/10
• Not In Kansas (105, 8yo, N W Alexander)
  Pulled up last time when lame, but holds prior winning form at this track. If bouncing back, she’s well handicapped.
  Rating: 7/10
• Maillot Blanc (101, 8yo, N W Alexander)
  Consistent profile and worth watching in the market with first-time cheekpieces.
  Rating: 6.5/10

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Interesting Outsiders

• Shadowfax Of Rohan (95, 5yo, Micky Hammond)
  Unexposed and took a fair step forward at Perth last time.
  Rating: 6/10
• Intertwine (83, 7yo, Jennie Candlish)
  Long layoff but may improve now handicapping after a change of stable. Watch market.
  Rating: 5.5/10
• Ivynator (99, 7yo, Jean McGregor)
  Poor overall profile and 195-day absence. Others preferred.
  Rating: 3/10

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Trainers to Note

• N W Alexander has trained two recent winners of this corresponding fixture.
• R Mike Smith has his horses running consistently well in this grade.

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Trends and Observations

• No past winners of this specific division were available.
• Market support has often been informative for those returning off 90+ days (watch Intertwine and Theirshegoes).
• Timeform flags Bleu Lagune (from Division I) as the day’s eye-catcher – potentially relevant context for comparative analysis.

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Tissue Estimate

Horse	Tissue Odds
Follow Charlie	5/2
Tread Softly Now	9/2
Theirshegoes	5/1
Golden Moonshake	13/2
Not In Kansas	7/1
Maillot Blanc	8/1
Shadowfax Of Rohan	12/1
Intertwine	20/1
Ivynator	33/1

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Each-Way Angle: With 9 runners declared, an each-way play on Tread Softly Now or Golden Moonshake may hold value given current adjusted ratings and profile upside.

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