Going: Good to Firm (Good in places)
Runners: 15 declared
Surface: Turf
Pace Forecast: Very Strong
Draw Bias: Favours Low


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Pace and Draw Angles

The pace is forecast to be very strong, which may disadvantage horses ridden prominently or forcing the pace from higher draws. Low draws are historically favoured over this trip at York, especially when the tempo is sustained.

Notably, Old Cock, Cruyff Turn, and Theme Park are likely to press forward, and their effectiveness may be dulled if the race unravels up front. Mr King and Blue For You are better suited by a collapse scenario and have more favourable run styles for this setup.


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Strongest Contenders

Blue For You (TFR 118) – 9/10
Proven at York with three previous course wins. Reappeared well behind Myal at Haydock and is well drawn in stall 4. Handles all ground and is a typical David O’Meara “go day” profile type.

Mr King (TFR 116) – 8.5/10
Caught the eye in a warm Thirsk contest when well backed, not ideally placed. Suited by the pace collapse and potentially well treated off 86. Worth monitoring for market strength.

Sisyphean (TFR 116) – 8.5/10
Lightly raced and impressive when last seen winning a York handicap easily. Absence of 215 days is a concern, but Ryan Moore is booked and Kevin Ryan has a strong record at this meeting.



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Main Dangers

Northern Express (TFR 114) – 8/10
Genuine course horse who’s been running with credit. Now on a tough mark (103), but will be finishing strongly off this pace and has track experience in his favour.

Cruyff Turn (TFR 113) – 7.5/10
Still capable at 8yo. Handy type who won at Redcar last month. Likely prominent and may be vulnerable late, but hard to rule out entirely with his rating holding firm.

Dingle (TFR 113) – 7/10
Comes here in good heart off two AW wins, the latest a touch fortunate. Still feasibly treated, and trainer Julie Camacho has a fine record when targeting single runners.

Cerulean Bay (TFR 112) – 7/10
Capable of better this season; shaped as if needing it at Haydock. C&D record encouraging and lightly raced 4yo types often progress for David O’Meara here.



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Interesting Outsiders

Theme Park (TFR 112) – 6.5/10
Another course scorer who showed improved form last time at Pontefract. Could be suited by strong pace collapsing. Trainer cold currently, which dampens confidence.

Romieu (TFR 108) – 6.5/10
French import with two wide-margin wins under his belt. Stays 1m, but this is a marked step up in class and pace intensity. Market support would be notable.

Stanage (TFR 114) – 6/10
Looked quirky at times but has a touch of ability. Latest Newmarket run was forgiveable, though this is a deep contest.



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Less Likely Types / Drawn Inconveniently

Old Cock (TFR 117) – 6/10
The pace and draw are against him here. Not seen since a poor Lincoln run where he had excuses, but best form was when dictating. Others better suited to this test.

Urban Sprawl (TFR 113) – 5.5/10
Likeable type but drawn wide and could be caught out as the field compresses. Johnston yard going well, though.

Alzahir (TFR 113) – 5/10
Below form at Newmarket and perhaps beginning to look exposed. Market support would be significant, especially with tongue tie retained.

Storm Catcher (TFR 112) – 4.5/10
Looks better on the AW and shaped as needing run at Lingfield. Trainer has a small profit record with single runners but faces a big ask here.



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Significant Trends & Trainer Notes

David O’Meara has won this race twice in the last three years and runs Blue For You and Cerulean Bay.

Kevin Ryan (trainer of Sisyphean) is often strong at this meeting and has the benefit of Ryan Moore booked.

Northern Express and Blue For You both have strong course records at York.



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Each-Way Angles (15 runners)

Blue For You, Mr King, Sisyphean, and Dingle all make appeal as each-way plays.

Theme Park may be a lively outsider with the race set up in mind.



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Tissue Estimate (fair odds)

Horse Tissue Price

Blue For You 5/1
Mr King 13/2
Sisyphean 13/2
Northern Express 15/2
Dingle 9/1
Romieu 10/1
Cruyff Turn 10/1
Cerulean Bay 12/1
Old Cock 14/1
Theme Park 16/1
Stanage 18/1
Alzahir 20/1
Urban Sprawl 20/1
Storm Catcher 25/1
La Trinidad 14/1



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Note: Watch for market moves on Sisyphean (215 days off), Old Cock (47 days off), and Storm Catcher (76 days off). Strong support or drift may indicate intent or lack thereof.