Pace / Tactics

The pace is expected to be very weak, favouring those racing handily. Cracking Destiny is likely to be well placed near the front, while Stumps Or Slips may have to work harder if held up as usual. The lack of a natural front-runner could lead to a steadily-run affair where tactical positioning proves critical.


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Strongest Contenders

Stumps Or Slips (TFR 115) – 9/10
Returned from a break with a commanding win at Ffos Las, travelling strongly and scoring by 9 lengths. He’s well-in under a 7 lb penalty and represents a hot yard in Olly Murphy. A potential improver in this grade, though his hold-up style might require some luck given the slow expected pace. Sean Bowen (30% strike rate at Perth) is a plus.
Timeform Comment: “Can make light of a penalty.”

We Got Your Back (TFR 113) – 8/10
Has strung together a consistent sequence since late 2024, winning at Leicester and Catterick, and was just edged out last time at Southwell by a neck. Remains in form and stays well. Likely to sit just off the pace, which should suit.
Timeform Comment: “At least as good as ever.”


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Main Dangers

Cracking Destiny (TFR 110) – 7/10
12-year-old C&D scorer with a solid recent third at Kelso. Best around 2m these days and probably vulnerable late, but with no pace on, his track position could help him nick a place.
Timeform Profile: “Better placed than Stumps Or Slips tactically.”

Leitrim Chief (TFR 112) – 6/10
Pulled up latest, but starts out for Ruth Jefferson and has shown a bit of ability in past chase starts. Wears blinkers again. The trainer switch adds intrigue, especially with a fitness doubt over several others.
Note: Off 69 days. Market support would be notable.

Tanking Along (TFR 106+) – 6/10
Patchy form but hinted at ability over hurdles and fences. Yet to convince, though the visor and slight ease in trip may help. Trainer Patrick Neville capable of readying one.
Note: Still unexposed; watching brief advised.


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Interesting Outsiders

Sword Of Fate (TFR 101) – 5/10
Has won four times at Perth, including this race in 2022. Now 12 and recent form is uninspiring, but the return here with a drop in class may spark a better effort.
Smart Stat: Leonard Kerr has a +£14.87 LSP with single runners in Perth chases.

Reflection Of You (TFR unadjusted) – 5/10
Modest hurdler making chasing debut for Lucinda Russell. Not obviously well treated but does travel well in races and could improve for the switch to fences.
Note: Off 55 days; watch the market.

A Place Apart (TFR ?) – 3/10
Off 585 days and pulled up both starts in 2023. Trainer has few winners, and this looks a prep run unless the market speaks otherwise.
Note: Market check vital; otherwise opposable on evidence.


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Trainers with Past Winners

Leonard Kerr won this race in 2022 with Sword Of Fate, who lines up again here.

No other trainers represented here have won this race in the last five runnings.



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Runner Ratings (Out of 10)

Horse Rating Notes

Stumps Or Slips 9/10 Well-in under penalty; form horse
We Got Your Back 8/10 Strong form and consistent
Cracking Destiny 7/10 C&D form, good tactical position
Leitrim Chief 6/10 New yard; revival possible
Tanking Along 6/10 Unexposed, visor on
Sword Of Fate 5/10 Former winner; aged 12 now
Reflection Of You 5/10 Chase debut; some profile positives
A Place Apart 3/10 Long layoff; out of form



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Each-Way Angles

With 8 runners, each-way terms apply. Cracking Destiny and Leitrim Chief look viable for place purposes given likely positioning and historical hints of ability. Sword Of Fate is speculative but has Perth form.


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Trends & Profile Pointers

3 of the last 5 winners were aged 8 or older.

Recent winners have included horses at 5/1, 13/2, and 18/1 – this is not always a favourites’ race.

Track familiarity (Perth) is a plus; several previous winners had form here.



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Market Watch

Leitrim Chief, Reflection Of You, and A Place Apart all return from layoffs exceeding 55 days. Significant market moves either way would be telling.

Stumps Or Slips should be watched to see if he hardens further at the top of the market after his convincing win.



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Tissue Price Estimate

Horse Estimated Odds

Stumps Or Slips 2/1
We Got Your Back 7/2
Cracking Destiny 13/2
Leitrim Chief 8/1
Tanking Along 9/1
Reflection Of You 12/1
Sword Of Fate 14/1
A Place Apart 33/1