Pace & Draw Angles
Pace forecast is even, with no clear trailblazer. A few may adopt forward positions (Basharat, Split Elevens, Zina Colada), but most are mid-to-hold-up types.
The draw bias is reportedly against middle stalls, which could disadvantage the likes of Onemorenomore (5) and Nammos (4) depending on how the field forms up.
Hold-up horses have a poor record in similar races at this trip on this track, so Stratocracy, who tends to race from rear, may need luck in running.
Strongest Contenders
- STRATOCRACY (Adj TFR 80+) – Back in form this spring with a pair of solid placed efforts, including a slightly unlucky third at Wetherby. Has form over this trip and should cope with conditions. However, hold-up style is a slight negative here. 8/10
- ONEMORENOMORE (79) – Proven at this level and was a winner twice last autumn at Doncaster. Below form last time but shaped better than result. Versatile tactically and will likely be handy. One of the most consistent in the line-up. 8/10
- SPLIT ELEVENS (78) – Tough and reliable type who’s been placed three times from his last four starts. Has a fitness edge and solid all-weather form, but needs to prove he can transfer that consistency to turf at Newmarket. 7/10
Main Dangers
- NAMMOS (78) – Two-time Chelmsford winner last year. Not at her best this spring but may benefit from a return to turf. May need things to fall right as she tends to be slowly away. 6/10
- SPANISH MANE (75) – Veteran mare who popped up with a second at Yarmouth on return. Better on faster ground, and now 10, but not a total forlorn hope if she finds the lead. 5/10
- COOPERATION (82) – Capable at this level but needs to bounce back from two lesser efforts. Has often travelled well and traded short in-play without delivering. Front rank tactics expected. 5/10
Interesting Outsiders
- ZINA COLADA (68) – Lightly raced this year but ran with credit at Yarmouth on return. Still looks short of peak form and draw is only a small plus. 4/10
- BASHARAT (–) – First run in over eight months. Career-best was in 2021 and recent efforts don’t inspire confidence. May need the outing. 2/10
- HOLD THE PRESS (–) – Similar profile to Basharat; off the track 343 days and little in recent form. Trainer’s record off breaks is patchy, but has had the odd long-priced returner. 2/10
Trends & Trainer Notes
- No dominant trainer in this race, though John Butler’s Split Elevens continues to hold his form well and is consistent on the clock.
- J. R. Jenkins has a £59 level stakes profit with horses returning from breaks, but both Hold The Press and Basharat appear up against it on current ability.
Each-Way Angles (9 runners)
Three places available, and with a fairly compressed field in terms of ratings, Split Elevens and Nammos look the most solid options behind the top pair.
Tissue Estimate
| Horse | Tissue Odds |
|---|---|
| STRATOCRACY | 11/4 |
| ONEMORENOMORE | 7/2 |
| SPLIT ELEVENS | 4/1 |
| NAMMOS | 6/1 |
| COOPERATION | 10/1 |
| SPANISH MANE | 14/1 |
| ZINA COLADA | 20/1 |
| BASHARAT | 33/1 |
| HOLD THE PRESS | 40/1 |
Final Thoughts
This is a modest contest where tactics and track position may outweigh raw ability. Stratocracy brings the most solid recent form but may be vulnerable tactically. Onemorenomore looks likely to be well positioned, while Split Elevens is an each-way option if repeating his AW consistency. Keep an eye on late support for Cooperation or either of the long-absent Jenkins pair for potential market whispers.
TimeWise Chronicles 
Leave a comment