Top Contenders
- TONY MONTANA – Progressive type from the in-form Michael Bell yard. Solid return when second to a well-regarded winner at Goodwood (adj. 112). Consistent profile, goes well fresh, and should benefit from pace collapse.
Score: 8.5/10 - THUNDER RUN – Course winner and genuine improver in 2024. Excused reappearance in the Lincoln (raced into a headwind); this more suitable. Top adjusted Timeform of 107+ at York in August.
Score: 8/10 - SALAMANCA – Dual winner, including the valuable Easter Classic. Tactically smart but may be vulnerable late over this stiff finish if forced to race prominently again. Adjusted rating of 108, but possibly flattered last time.
Score: 7.5/10 - HAVE SECRET – Won by 4¾L at Ripon latest (adj. 109), the form of which ties in with several here. Always been seen as a decent handicapper; career-best form and prominent showing likely.
Score: 7.5/10 - AUSTRIAN THEORY – On the upgrade this spring and runner-up in strong Chester event last time (adj. 114+). High pace setup may not suit his preferred forward style, but he’s game and consistent.
Score: 7.5/10
Each-Way Contenders / Dangers
- FLYING FRONTIER – Lightly raced, missed 258 days but ended 2024 with a gutsy win at Sandown. Potential to run well fresh based on profile.
Score: 7/10 (Layoff watch) - FINANCER – 4x winner in 2024, second to Have Secret last time and shaped better than result (missed break). Will be suited by the likely strong tempo and stiff finish.
Score: 7/10 - BINT AL DAAR – Back in form this spring and may prefer further, but capable of running into a place. Stays 10f well and adjusted figures (107) hold up.
Score: 6.5/10 - WESTERTON – 5yo with smart bits of form and ran respectably on return behind Tony Montana. Likely to come on for that run.
Score: 6.5/10
Interesting Outsiders
- BRIONI – Fair reappearance run after six-month break; Ascot win (adj. 109) gives him a squeak if finding that level again. Still lightly raced and low draw helps.
Score: 6.5/10 - DEBORA’S DREAM – Shaped well when sixth in big Chester field last week, doing best of those held up. Similar scenario here could bring further improvement.
Score: 6.5/10 - ZAIN BLUE – Good York record but bombed on return. Chance if bouncing back, but recent form leaves questions.
Score: 6/10 - MAN OF DESERT – Took a big leap forward at Yarmouth latest (adj. 110+). Needs more against this deeper field, but he’s unexposed.
Score: 6/10
Timeform Trainer Trends & Race History
- Trainer form to note:
- Michael Bell (Tony Montana): Yard in hot form.
- Tim Easterby (Austrian Theory, Financer): Won this race in 2022 with Bollin Joan.
- Karl Burke (Thunder Run): Operating well and proven at this venue.
- Recent Winners:
- 2024: Botanical (4yo, 9-8)
- 2022: Bollin Joan (7yo, 8-8, T. Easterby)
- 2021: Surrey Pride (4yo, 8-11)
Draw & Pace Insights
- Pace Expected: Strong
- Draw Bias: Low stalls historically favoured over this extended 10f trip.
- Best Suited Tactics: Mid-to-late runners. Horses like Financer, Tony Montana, and Debora’s Dream are likely to benefit. Front-runners like Salamanca and Austrian Theory might face pressure early.
Ratings Summary (Out of 10)
| Horse | Score |
|---|---|
| Tony Montana | 8.5 |
| Thunder Run | 8 |
| Salamanca | 7.5 |
| Have Secret | 7.5 |
| Austrian Theory | 7.5 |
| Flying Frontier | 7 |
| Financer | 7 |
| Bint Al Daar | 6.5 |
| Westerton | 6.5 |
| Brioni | 6.5 |
| Debora’s Dream | 6.5 |
| Zain Blue | 6 |
| Man of Desert | 6 |
Tissue Estimate (100% Book)
- Tony Montana – 4/1
- Thunder Run – 11/2
- Austrian Theory – 13/2
- Salamanca – 13/2
- Have Secret – 7/1
- Financer – 10/1
- Flying Frontier – 11/1
- Westerton – 12/1
- Debora’s Dream – 14/1
- Brioni – 16/1
- Bint Al Daar – 16/1
- Zain Blue – 20/1
- Man of Desert – 20/1
Market Watch Advice
- Flying Frontier, Brioni, and Financer return off breaks of 90+ days. Support for any of them would be notable.
- Debora’s Dream and Man of Desert have profile angles and may be late improvers.
TimeWise Chronicles 
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