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Pace/Draw Overview:

• Pace Forecast: Strong. A well-run race expected, favouring strong stayers and closers.
• No draw bias over this extended trip.

Pace Implications: Likely end-to-end gallop should suit hold-up runners with proven stamina, especially Capone and Donald Llewellyn, while it may compromise those reliant on getting an easy lead like Gooloogong.

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Top Contenders:

• MOEL ARTHUR (TF adj 78, Draw 5)
  Consistent on AW and shaped better than result at Kempton last time when hampered. Back to just 2lb above last winning mark. Best figures give him a solid chance.
  Rating: 8/10
• CAPRELO (TF adj 78+, Draw 1)
  Lightly raced and still unexposed at staying trips. Decent return effort over shorter here last month. Peak efforts give him a fair shot if coming on for the run.
  Rating: 7.5/10
• CURRUMBIN (TF adj 79, Draw 8)
  Has run consistently well in staying AW handicaps this season, including a good second at Kempton over C&D. Has the form but draw and trainer form a minor concern.
  Rating: 7/10

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Main Dangers:

• DOUBLETHETROUBLE (TF adj 81, Draw 7)
  Honest stayer who rarely runs a bad race. Held up and can stay on late, though likely to need luck in running. AW profile is solid and this trip suits.
  Rating: 6.5/10
• GOOLOOGONG (TF adj 73, Draw 4)
  Returns to the flat from a quiet comeback. Well-handicapped on best efforts but was comfortably beaten at Goodwood and may struggle in a strongly-run race.
  Rating: 6/10
• KINGDOM OF STARS (TF adj 72, Draw 3)
  Lightly raced and still learning. Ran poorly in novice races last season but steps up markedly in trip for handicap debut. Trainer in form. Market check advised.
  Rating: 5.5/10

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Interesting Outsiders:

• CAPONE (TF adj 82, Draw 2)
  Veteran who has won over further. Ran creditably in decent turf handicaps last summer but off 306 days and likely to need this. Will benefit from strong pace.
  Rating: 5.5/10
• DONALD LLEWELLYN (TF adj 38+, Draw 6)
  Won on penultimate start at Lingfield but tailed off next time. Capable on his day but comes with risks attached.
  Rating: 5/10

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Ratings Summary (Out of 10):

Horse	TF Adj	Rating	Notes
Moel Arthur	78	8.0	Strong recent form, back near last winning mark
Caprelo	78+	7.5	Solid return and lightly raced
Currumbin	79	7.0	Consistent C&D performer, wide draw
Doublethetrouble	81	6.5	Runs his race, lacks tactical edge
Gooloogong	73	6.0	Front-runner, vulnerable if pressured early
Kingdom of Stars	72	5.5	Handicap debut, stamina to prove
Capone	82	5.5	Long layoff, capable if ready
Donald Llewellyn	38+	5.0	Unreliable but once capable of better

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Each-Way Angle (8 runners):

• Doublethetrouble – reliable stayer with solid AW record.
• Currumbin – if overcoming the draw, has run to a place level at the track before.
• Capone – if backed late, could be primed off a break with past figures good enough.

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Trends & Trainer Notes:

• No past winners of this race, but staying AW handicaps at Kempton often favour proven C&D performers and lightly raced improvers.
• Hughie Morrison (Caprelo) has a good strike rate with stayers at this track.
• George Baker’s one-runners at Flat meetings show a positive profit trend (+£64.40) – Gooloogong.
• Dominic Ffrench Davis has excellent figures with runners off a break (+£170.50) – Capone.

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Tissue Estimate:

• Moel Arthur – 4/1
• Caprelo – 4/1
• Currumbin – 11/2
• Doublethetrouble – 6/1
• Gooloogong – 7/1
• Capone – 10/1
• Kingdom of Stars – 11/1
• Donald Llewellyn – 12/1