Pace & Draw Angles
The pace forecast is strong, with front-runners like Vellner and Windsor Pass likely to press on early. However, Newbury’s straight mile historically favours prominent racers, and hold-up types can be at a disadvantage if the field strings out.
The draw bias here is minimal in large fields on good ground over the straight mile, but low-to-mid has historically offered a slight edge.
Strongest Contenders
- NEWFANGLED (TFR adj 80) – 3lb higher for a fluent win at Lingfield, showing good tactical speed and the ability to sustain a run. Proven on turf and versatile regarding the going. The Jonathan Portman yard is in good order, and the gelding’s style should suit the track. 9/10
- DRUMSTICK (77) – Caught the eye staying on into third behind Norflondonforever on return at Kempton. Off the bridle early but rallied well. Well-handicapped on that and may have more to offer. 8/10
- MY AMBITION (80) – Solid second latest at Bath and previous course winner. Generally runs well at this time of year and now back on a competitive mark. Can go well if not over-racing. 8/10
Main Dangers
- WINDSOR PASS (79) – Consistent and reliable mare with solid AW form. Trainer (John Butler) can ready one, and recent run behind dead-heaters suggests she’s in peak form. Needs a clear run from mid-pack draw. 7/10
- RACING DEMON (78§) – Capable but quirky; needs everything to fall right. Below form on return but entitled to strip fitter. Trainer Ed de Giles has a past winner of this race (2019: Wind In My Sails). 6/10
- DARVEL (77) – Bath winner last month, but found less at Lingfield. Could bounce back with the return to turf and a strong pace to aim at. Not totally dismissed. 6/10
Interesting Outsiders
- BUY THE DIP (83) – Well-handicapped on old form but returning from 145-day absence. Market may guide—worth monitoring closely for any support. 5/10
- MARSH BENHAM (79§) – Patchy profile but has form on varied going and hinted at a return to form at Brighton. Has run well fresh before. 5/10
- SATURNALIA (79) – Up-and-down form but capable at this level. Stable not known for turf success, but the horse handles all surfaces and was second off similar marks in March. 5/10
Longshots/Low Ratings
- HOVER (69) – 1099-day layoff. Formerly rated 87 but impossible to assess now. Has ability but fitness and intent uncertain. 3/10
- HUXLEY (45) – Ex-Ballydoyle but nothing to suggest competitiveness under current connections. 2/10
- MYBAD (79?) – Three quiet runs. Minor place claims on breeding but no substance in recent form. 3/10
- ENGLISH SPIRIT (63) – Out of form and tricky to catch right. 4/10
- VELLNER (81) – Front-runner, but off 243 days and has shown little since Ayr win. Likely to face pressure early. 4/10
Significant Trainer Trend
- Ed de Giles (RACING DEMON) trained Wind In My Sails, winner of this race in 2019.
- John Gallagher (DRUMSTICK) has a solid profit return at meetings when sending just one runner (Smart Stat: £131.78 to £1 level stake).
Each-Way Angles (14 runners)
Each-way claims can be made for DRUMSTICK, MY AMBITION, and WINDSOR PASS – all have recent placed form and solid adjusted ratings in the mid-to-high 70s.
Tissue Estimate
| Horse | Tissue Odds |
|---|---|
| NEWFANGLED | 7/2 |
| DRUMSTICK | 6/1 |
| MY AMBITION | 13/2 |
| WINDSOR PASS | 8/1 |
| BUY THE DIP | 10/1 |
| RACING DEMON | 11/1 |
| SATURNALIA | 12/1 |
| DARVEL | 14/1 |
| MARSH BENHAM | 16/1 |
| ENGLISH SPIRIT | 20/1 |
| HOVER | 25/1 |
| VELLNER | 25/1 |
| MYBAD | 33/1 |
| HUXLEY | 66/1 |
Final Notes
- Keep an eye on the market for BUY THE DIP (145 days off), HOVER (1099 days off), and VELLNER (243 days off).
- The race often sees winners at double-digit prices (past winners at 10/1, 12/1, 33/1).
- Pace setup should suit those tracking the leaders, and Newfangled, who can sit handy and quicken, looks well placed on profile, recent form, and race dynamics.
TimeWise Chronicles 
Leave a comment